calling raises with small pocket pairs

[tgo007]

alright I know it is +ev to call with a small pocket pair to try to flop a set because if villian has AA/KK he might lose his whole stack.

My question is how big of a raise should you be willing to call?

I know u hit a set 1 out of 8 times, but that doesn't mean u should call raises that are 8xbb (assuming 100bb stacks).

I have been following a 10x rule instead but I am starting to think maybe that is still not good because u will not win villian's stack often enough for it to be profitable.

I am thinking of following a 15x or 20x rule instead. Anything wrong with this?

P.S. I play NL100 so the players are decent.

[phydaux]

Expectation is determined by how likely the villain is to stack off with his overpair.

If he's both a good player and deep stacked, then you're likely to only get half his stack. Assuming equivalent stacks, calling a raise pre-flop stops being cost effective when the raise is more than 5% of effective stack size.

On the other hand, if the raiser is a chump then you can call raises of up to 10% effective stack size, confident that, if you hit your set, you will be playing for stacks.

Then set over set comes into play and takes a huge bite out of your win rate. IIRC, Ed and the boys said this was covered in detail in the forthcoming PNL.

[lippy]

5/10 rule. If Villain has you covered, always call up to 5% of your stack, never call more than 10%, 5%-10% is player dependent as phydaux explained.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If x = the amount of the raise
If y = opponent stack size
and z = probability opponent will stack off if you hit

Then if y*z > 8*x, you call.

note: depending on the size of your pair and how weak your opponent plays postflop, you may make money when you don't flop a set. But that's harder to estimate, too.

The hard part is accurately estimating z.