200nl - Bottom Set = EZ Fold?

too eazy · #1 06-25-2007, 04:00 PM

Villain is one tabling and seems semi donk but has been playing reasonably tight for first hour at table. (Probably something like 12/8).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($303.90)
Hero ($200)
SB ($256.40)
BB ($410.10)
UTG ($197)
UTG+1 ($211.95)
MP1 ($212.10)
MP2 ($83.45)
MP3 ($199)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $8, CO calls $8, Hero calls $8, 2 folds, MP1 calls $6.

Flop: ($35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 bets $18, CO folds, Hero raises to $56, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $94, Hero raises to $192, MP3 calls $97 (All-In).

Turn: ($418) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($418) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $418

tarheeljks · #2 06-25-2007, 04:13 PM

nope get it in there. sorry if he had a higher set/straight

Teddie · #3 06-25-2007, 04:15 PM

EZ call more like it. Never fold a set on a board like that.

CazicT · #4 06-25-2007, 04:18 PM

Fold to the initial flop bet, isn't it obvious he has an overset??

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

effang · #5 06-25-2007, 04:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EZ call more like it. Never fold a set on a board like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, what are you talking about? why wouldn't you ever fold a set on this board? you never fold sets on boards where 2p and draws exist.

on this board, there is one likely 2p, and no draws (the only draw already got there). i think if you're going to fold a set, folding here is probably one of the better times you can fold a set not facing a 4 straight/4 flush.

BigBiceps · #6 06-25-2007, 04:26 PM

I like a fold here. I don't like to call here when there is a fairly high probability that you have only 1 out.

I think I have been wrong about folding bottom set with a 3-way potential allin about once out of five times.

The one time was when both idiots had flush draws on a 1 gap 3 straight board in an unraised pot. One had the nut flush draw and the other had the straight/flush combo draw.

tgo007 · #7 06-25-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nope get it in there. sorry if he had a higher set/straight

[/ QUOTE ]

too eazy · #8 06-25-2007, 05:15 PM

would you (you being people saying this is never a fold) argue against the theorem that most villains will either overplay AA KK AQ type hands by shoving to my raise, or going into check call mode, whereas with a set or 9T they will be more apt to min 4bet?

AFCBeer · #9 06-25-2007, 05:38 PM

By my (probably wrong) maths we are getting just over 2 to 1 stack odds on the shove.

Shove is $136
Final Pot $418 - $136 = $282
$282:$136 = ~ 2 to 1

That means we are getting correct odds to draw to the FH even if villain has straight. Obviously we are toast to QQ or JJ but I'd pay off. This is AA/KK, KQ or some other junk often enough to play for stacks here.

EDIT: Of course that is only the odds if villain calls the shove. If he will fold these hands that changes things slightly so against a tight player there is a reasonable arguement for finding a fold. However, against a "semi-donk" I'm not sure I could bring myself to fold this.

jhill3535 · #10 06-25-2007, 05:49 PM

IMO You shouldn't be making the call with 88 against a tight player if you are planning to fold when you flop your set.