NFL Week 8 Player Prop Thread

mogwai316 · #1 10-27-2007, 01:14 PM

I have a terrible record so far at picking these, so I'm leaning towards not placing any bets this week. There seems to be a huge variance in week-to-week individual player stats. I'm sure I'll get sucked in to at least one, though. Here's a few that seem interesting:

D. Anderson vs. M. Bulger, fantasy pts.
The line is Anderson -3 on Bodog but only -2 on Diamond. I expect this to be a high-scoring game where both QBs could put up some big numbers. Anderson -2 seems like the best bet, but meh.

B. Edwards vs T. Holt, fantasy pts.
On Bodog this is Edwards -1.5 (-125), Holt +1.5 (-115). On Diamond it's pick em with Edwards -130 and Holt even. Pretty significant line difference, which makes the Holt +1.5 look pretty good. It seems like receiver vs. receiver matchups often come down to whichever one happens to score a touchdown when the other doesn't, and that is pretty random given two reasonably similar receivers.

L. Coles over 12 fantasy pts (-115)
Coles is averaging over 17 fantasy pts/game this year. Buffalo's pass defense is 31st in yardage allowed and 23rd in TD's allowed.

silentbob · #2 10-27-2007, 01:25 PM

FWIW, there is only one fantasy scoring prop on Bodog that I like right now. And it's a dog where I think the line will improve, so I won't say which one it is (or bet it) yet.

LogistX · #3 10-27-2007, 08:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
L. Coles over 12 fantasy pts (-115)
Coles is averaging over 17 fantasy pts/game this year. Buffalo's pass defense is 31st in yardage allowed and 23rd in TD's allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this a point per reception league? If that is true, this is a steal. Coles is averaging 6 catches per game.

mogwai316 · #4 10-27-2007, 10:05 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
L. Coles over 12 fantasy pts (-115)
Coles is averaging over 17 fantasy pts/game this year. Buffalo's pass defense is 31st in yardage allowed and 23rd in TD's allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this a point per reception league? If that is true, this is a steal. Coles is averaging 6 catches per game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, Diamond uses 1pt per reception, 1pt per 20 yards, and 6pts per TD for their fantasy scoring. Under this system Coles points for each game this year are 21.95, 8.85, 10.5, 17.25, 12.45, 2.35, 26.65 for an average of 14.3 (the 17 I quoted earlier was from Bodog, they must use a slightly different system). So with him playing at home against Buffalo this week, I think the over is pretty good here. I did go ahead and put 0.5u on it earlier today. It's still available.

cookieb · #5 10-28-2007, 12:00 AM

Roethlisberger +1.5 vs. Palmer

I really like Big Ben here, mostly due to the defenses each QB will be facing

psuasskicker · #6 10-28-2007, 01:11 AM

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Roethlisberger +1.5 vs. Palmer

I really like Big Ben here, mostly due to the defenses each QB will be facing

[/ QUOTE ]

Cinci has the #2 passing D, vs. Pitt #23. This isn't close to the value you think it is, and I personally lean the other way on it.

- C -

insanity31 · #7 10-28-2007, 02:45 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
Roethlisberger +1.5 vs. Palmer

I really like Big Ben here, mostly due to the defenses each QB will be facing

[/ QUOTE ]

Cinci has the #2 passing D, vs. Pitt #23. This isn't close to the value you think it is, and I personally lean the other way on it.

- C -

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Cinci #2 passing D? I think you misread something.

Witzo · #8 10-28-2007, 03:18 AM

I really like Marshawn Lynch -1 Fantasy Point vs Thomas Jones (-120)
I also jumped On Derrick Anderson over Bulger and Braylon over Holt, mostly cause I think Cleveland is going to have a big game.
My first stab at player props ever and did only .3U on each to dabble.

Nonfiction · #9 10-28-2007, 03:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Roethlisberger +1.5 vs. Palmer

I really like Big Ben here, mostly due to the defenses each QB will be facing

[/ QUOTE ]

Cinci has the #2 passing D, vs. Pitt #23. This isn't close to the value you think it is, and I personally lean the other way on it.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you mean the #2/#23 passing offense. Pittsburgh has the #3 passing defense, #1 total defense.

silentbob · #10 10-28-2007, 11:19 AM

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I really like Big Ben here, mostly due to the defenses each QB will be facing

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, this was the one that I eyed yesterday.

Ben Roethlisberger +1.5 fantasy points vs. Carson Palmer at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). I have Roethlisberger outscoring Palmer by 2 or 3 points here. These difference in quality of defenses is way too large. My only concern is that the Bengals can't stop the run either, which means the Steelers may pass less and stick with a healthy dose of FWP. But I can also see the Steelers keeping Palmer off the field by maintaining possession for long periods.

Adrian Peterson over 19.5 rushing attempts at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). He is finally the starter. Even when he wasn't, he had 20 or more attempts in half his games. The Vikings are also starting Holcomb at QB, which suggests greater reliance on the running game. It also helps that Chester Taylor is slightly banged up. I think 22 or 23 carries seems most likely.

Ahman Green over 13 rushing attempts at -110 for 1 unit (Bodog). This line seems REALLY low. Green is finally healthy and starting. Ron Dayne has hardly played recently. I can see the Texans abandoning the run if the Chargers jump to a big lead though, so a 2-unit bet may not be warranted. Most projections I've seen suggest a total in the mid-to-high teens, which seems about right. The Chargers aren't that great against the run this year.

Best of luck to all.

YTD: 18-16, -0.17 units