Set vs LAG - 3-bet river when scare card hits?

[Lunkan]

MP1 is very LAG. Only played about 20 hands with him but he has seen half of the flops and raised 20% of his hands preflop. A couple of hands ago the board read A 8 2 2 and he 3-bet with 8 3.

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, 6 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, Hero ?

Considering he is somewhat a maniac and that he probably would have raised the flop if he had a flush draw do you 3-bet here?

[kerowo]

Yes, call the 3-bet. There are too many hands he could have that you beat assume he has the flush.

[Lunkan]

Villain has raised. The question was if we should 3-bet.

[mustela]

He didn't re-raise the pre-flop so I don't put him on AA.

As you say, if he had the two clubs pre-flop then I would again expect a raise on the flop. Ditto if he had QK giving him OESD.

He liked the Turn though, showing his first aggression - does that mean he had 88? It seems to discount flush draw but could instead mean he had Q9 or 97 pre-flop.

No raise on the Flop seems to rule out Q9 so maybe he had 97? Particularly given your comment about 3-betting 83, in which case 97s would make eminent sense to him.

However, 789TJ would surely lead to a CAP on the Turn?


I think 888 is most likely so would 3-Bet, but I couldn't squeal too loudly if he had completed his straight.

[xJames2112]

This looks like a scare card bluff to me. Like you said he would have raised the flop with a flush draw. I would 3-bet and hope he has something like A8 and not a flush or 97.

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, call the 3-bet. There are too many hands he could have that you beat assume he has the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, call the cap. Raise him here.

[Dastone]

The only way he got you on the river is if he tried to semi bluff the turn. If you think he would do that here then just call.

Or he turned a straight, and slowed down to pop you again on the river which would seem more in line w/ his play. But again, wouldn't he have raised the flop w/ an Q9 oesd? Which leaves a 9 7, it is possible that this is the only type of hand/draw that I don't think he would raise the flop with. If he assumes you wouldn't play a flush draw this way, than you maybe should just call his river raise.

If he's bluffing he can't call a 3 bet so there's no value in raising if you think he's on a bluff.

I'm certain there's plenty of hands you beat that he will call you with if you 3 bet, but I don't think he would play them the way this hand played out on any street. Except for a few of the weaker ones like small 2 pairs, not a good aces up, that he would have raised with preflop. I imagine this would be a call against most opponnent's most of the time, but raise him.

[Sushiglutton]

I think a 3-bet here is good. Only a flush or KQ beats us, and there are many worse hands he could have.

[DrModern]

Obv. 3-bet.

[YesMehFriend]

Villain's line looks quite strange to me, esp. his turn raise + river raise. I guess he might raise this river more often with an ace, 2p or even something weaker than with a made flush. Therefore I'd 3-bet.