NL200, ez call or bluff catcher?

[abcjnich]

Villian is AArockAA, a good reg. He had 300 when I sat down and we've been going back and forth a lot. He stacked me w/ JJ against TT in a AT3J board where he 3bet pre and flop was chk/chk. I've kind of been building back up, although lately I've lost two 3bet pots in the last 3 hands. Villian is aggressive, and I haven't seen him get out of line all session.

No real reason why I checked the flop, I think I was paying more attention to another table when it happened. I was very close to going all in on the turn, but that wouldn't give him a chance to bluff again if he was bluffing. Then the river hit and I started second guessing myself esp after he wrote in the chat box.

Sorry no converter.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3590855512: Table Cube (heads up) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:02 ET - 2007/09/17
Seat 1: AAROCKAA ($369.30)
Seat 2: abcjnich ($261.10)
AAROCKAA posts the small blind of $1
abcjnich posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to abcjnich [Qd Kc]
AAROCKAA raises to $6
abcjnich: ill just see 3 horrible flops in a row in 3bet pots
abcjnich has 15 seconds left to act
abcjnich raises to $20
AAROCKAA has 15 seconds left to act
AAROCKAA calls $14
*** FLOP *** [9d Tc Qc]
abcjnich checks
AAROCKAA checks
*** TURN *** [9d Tc Qc] [Qs]
abcjnich bets $30
AAROCKAA raises to $80
abcjnich has 15 seconds left to act
abcjnich calls $50
*** RIVER *** [9d Tc Qc Qs] [5h]
abcjnich checks
AAROCKAA bets $139
abcjnich has 15 seconds left to act
AAROCKAA: AJ NO GOOT

[xSCWx]

I'd call this pretty pretty quick, especially if he is an aggressive player.

I didn't actually do the math for this, but at a glance you need to win this something like 1 in 2.4? (I just woke up this might be way off)

On another note, why isn't AArockAA's avatar a rock?

[jakeduke]

Does villain 4bet KK/AA PF? Would he play either hand this way postflop?

QJ seems very possible here. Then again, so does QT/Q9/AQ depending on how loosely he calls 3bets. 99/TT/JJ are in his range too I think. He has to put you on a range of like AA/KK/AJ/TJ/possible monster when you call the turn, which I guess doesn't tell us that much? I'm rambling now. Do you think he thinks he can get you off AA/KK with a river shove? If so I call here, as then his shove can definitely be a hand that doesn't beat AA. But if you don't think he'd feel that way it's a closer play, since his hand can most likely beat AA, and we only beat 1 other realistic hand that beats AA.

In the end, I'm a station so zomg trips arrr in. It seems pretty close though.

[abcjnich]

On a side note, does anyone play the turn and river differently if the turn and river are 2, 2?

[jakeduke]

I'd probably c/c the turn and bet the river if the turn got checked or c/? if the turn gets bet.

[BarryLyndon]

You need to call him because any [censored] who writes in capitals "AJo NO GOOT" deserves a good healthy spite call. If he has the goods, then whatever, but if he has worse, then you can type in "Neither is QJ, muahahahaha." Then you post in BBV.

So, really, you have better than 2.4 to 1 here. There is implied odds for the next hour and entertainment for the rest of us.

Barry

Barry

[brandysbich]

I wouldnt even consider folding here...is that a leak?

[creedofhubris]

I think his little chat would convince me to merely call rather than c/r allin

[MasterLJ]

Given flop action, there's no way you can get away from this IMO.

It's a weird hand since he's likely not semi-bluffing the turn as he would do this on the flop. His range has to contain some stone cold bluffs here, he could be getting FPS on you and have AK vs your alleged AJ, although table talk generally means he has a monster.

I do think AT and JJ-AA are also in his range here, AA less so for obvious reasons.

So pretty much all avenues of hand analysis have failed and I would just rely on logic and gameplan for the hand. If you checked the flop you must call here.

[Perestroika]

Isn't this an auto bet on the flop?? I dont see how this is not a bet. You even have the Kc which gives you a few extra percent of equity against his range, and you have the gutter. Also his hand does not have to be strong here to call your reraise unless your never ever ever 3 betting and even then players hate to fold to 3bets in general, they generally have AK syndrome.