When to give up when you miss

[AMadison]

$2/$4 - 8 handed

The table has been fairly tight most hands not making it to the showdown. BB had played to this same pattern, tight and passive.

PreFolp: Hero is SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero Raises, BB calls, 1 fold.

My reasoning here for a raise was that against 2 random hands K9 wins more than 1/3 of the time and with tight play I thought I could just pick up the pot right here.

Flop:(4.5 SB) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
Hero bets , BB calls

My thinking here was that if BB missed I pick up the pot right here.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero Bets, BB calls

My thinking here is I now have a double belly buster and if BB probably didn't get help here

River (5.25 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero Bets, BB calls.

The only way I could win this pot was to bet it and hope villain would be scared of an A and fold a small pair or fold a missed draw.

Are my justifications of my actions good thinking or just excuses to make poor decisions? Comments on any street would be appreciated.

[kbdunn]

PF: Probably raise is close since BB is tight, but you had a poster in CO.

Flop: Bet is standard even though this flop will hit much of villains range. Basically getting 4-1 to pick up the pot right there.

Turn: I check this, the T also can easily hit the villains range and getting raised here sucks. Check and hope villain checks behind or c/c.

River: c/f. It is important to understand some basics of betting on the river. Betting here is horrible, only hands that have you beat are calling. You beat some busted draws, but they arent calling your bet and will check behind you (unless the villain is capable of bluffing the river).

You are only getting 5-1 to make the villain fold a better hand, so only when you have a super solid read that this guy is a nit and will fold when an Ace shows, you should lead out, even then, there is still the possibility he has an Ace anyway.

[AMadison]

[ QUOTE ]


Turn: I check this, the T also can easily hit the villains range and getting raised here sucks. Check and hope villain checks behind or c/c.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why does getting raised here suck... I have 8 outs to the straight, plus spiking a K often times is good to, a raise from villain and I have 6-1 odds on a 17% draw (the straight). That makes it easy to call a turn raise and c/f the river UI.

[kbdunn]

You may still have the odds, but when you are raised by a better hand, you are putting more money in the pot (compared to villain) than your current equity versus his.

Say optimistically 9.5 outs for double gutter and your king outs, which is roughly 20% equity on the turn. You want to be putting no more than a fifth of the total bets occuring on fourth street (eg villain bets, 3 callers and then you call).

[jesse8888]

PF and flop = good.
Turn = meh. I think betting is alright, but I'd probably check and call a bet if I had the right price (didn't do the math).
River = bad. He's basically calling with a pair (all of which beat you) and folding without one (all of which you can beat).

[Man of Means]

Preflop starts a chain reaction of having to bet to win the ever-increasing pot. This happens sometimes, but realizing you're out of position, you might consider limping, then trying to pick up the small pot on a dry flop. But raising isn't out of line.

If we can quantify how tight BB is, the hand is easier to understand.

Check the river. Your bet will get called by a pair very often, and only serves to block a bluff attempt on his part. If he is passive, he is not likely to bet the river without a pair. Sometimes you'll get a free showdown and win with K-high.

[wizard]

I like a slightly different line because of the 2 suited board. You raise has made the pot big enough for a flush or straight draw to call you down and maybe improve by hitting a pair. Give them (and you) a free turn catd and reevaluate. If he checks again you can bet and it is now wrong for him to call with 8 or 9 outs. With this board, it looks like you missed the flop but hit the turn.

I would have limped but think your raise is well thought out and appropriate. Check this river with this board and a tight BB.

[abby318]

preflop: standard raise especially with dead money posting.

flop:standard. in WITHG on page 149. stox writes as the preflop aggressor you must bet 100 percent of flops even when out of position.

turn: standard. u are getting 3.5 to 1 on your bet in this spot. its very common for people to call with virtually atc on the flop in a blind versus blind situation but quickly release a hand on the turn.

river: with k-high this is c/f situation. sometimes if your read on villain is aggressive you might be able to call with as little as ace high. our villian usually has a low pair in this spot and the river will go check-check. however villian will not fold to a river bet.

[jomatty]

pf i think can go either way, but raising is fine. flop standard. turn i much prefer a bet. unlike everyone else i think that betting the river is prob in order. there is a very good chance that your opponent has a small pair type hand, and once that ace comes off he has to ask himself what he beats. if he is calling down with a 5, 7 or some other small pair you very well may get a fold out of him, and this is enough of a chance that i think you need to hit it one more time.

[elindauer]

I like it. I especially like that you have a reason for making every action in the hand. You're on your way to becoming an excellent player. Keep it up.

The only street I might play differently is the turn. I sometimes check-raise in that spot. I find that I pick up extra money from missed hands this way (since they will often fire) and I can get folds from the weakest hands more easily, as my hand looks absolutely huge. With so many likely outs (8 straight + overcard) I like this combination.

If he checks behind, hey, I'm still drawing man. I'm happy with that. I give up a bit of fold equity in this case perhaps, but in my experience it's worth the trade.

Note that I check-raise big hands after this action all the time. The whole sequence screams "continuation bet, ok I give up", so the turn is bet by the villain both with made hands (for protection) and with bluffs (to steal from a hand that appears to have missed). When you check-raise, it just as powerfully screams "haha! I trapped you!", which can induce some big folds at times (I judge this by the frequency with which I see think think think think think think think fold).

-eric