1/2 live 10-10

[Man of Means]

posting this hand for a friend. he was in the 1/2 game at foxwoods. his stack is ~200 at the start of this hand. Both villains cover and can be described as "reasonable preflop, good postflop" meaning they are at least capable of folding ace-rag and thinking deeper than Level 1. This may be a read-based "you had to be there" hand, but I wanted to see if REM (range, equity, maximize) can be put to work.

Hero has 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in EP and raises to $15. Standard opening raise in this game is anywhere from $6-15

Two coldcalls in late position. Blinds fold.

Flop 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot $48)
Hero bets $25, 1 call, button raises to $100, hero.. ?

[akak]

Well, calling would commit you, and your hand is very vulnerable so I'm fairly certain it's push or fold.

At first I was leaning towards push, but given the read, I'm thinking I fold (possibly the better hand). Given the read that they are pretty solid players they're not going to call your push with a worse hand. And calling is out, so I fold.

[Profish2285]

I fold here but am shoving with QQ+.

[Shocker101]

I am getting it in here and seeing a low pocket or top pair top kicker alot.

[Man of Means]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the read that they are pretty solid players they're not going to call your push with a worse hand. And calling is out, so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, both villains have about 400. Hero started with 200
The guy in the middle is probably going to fold, or is trapping.

As for button, he's committed vs. hero (it's only $65 more), so even if he has a hand like A9 or A7 he's most likely calling. And 88,55,66 is going to be conflicted as well.

I agree it's either push or fold for hero. Clearly Button was trying to force that decision. Lots of bad players, with dominated hands who realize this, go ahead and push because they can't fold. But I don't know if button knows hero knows it's push/fold, and is putting him to that tough decision with an inferior hand.

[akak]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the read that they are pretty solid players they're not going to call your push with a worse hand. And calling is out, so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

As for button, he's committed vs. hero (it's only $65 more), so even if he has a hand like A9 or A7 he's most likely calling. And 88,55,66 is going to be conflicted as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, very good point. Didn't realize it would only be $65 more if you pushed, so he would call with worse hands. A LOT of worse hands. I think this swings the answer to push.
I'd say it's close though and wouldn't find too much fault with folding.

Hmm...Just ran the equity calculation. I put villain on:

A7s, A9, T8s, 97s, 98s, 86s, 65s, 55+

Hero is 51% favorite. So unless I missed a part of his range, I guess the answer is push.


[ QUOTE ]
But I don't know if button knows hero knows it's push/fold, and is putting him to that tough decision with an inferior hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this point in my poker career, I'm not even beginning to consider higher level thinking like this. It's possible that this guy is, but I doubt it.

[Man of Means]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm...Just ran the equity calculation. I put villain on:
A7s, A9, T8s, 97s, 98s, 86s, 65s, 55+
Hero is 51% favorite. So unless I missed a part of his range, I guess the answer is push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed 44 (bottom set) but it does not change equity much.

Our weighting of the hands in this range and subsequent decision depends on a read of how likely villain is to be splashing around in there with a suited connector against a $15 raise, then playing a draw or small pair aggressively.
One thing I mentioned to my friend was that his flop bet was somewhat small (1/2 pot) and may have invited the aggression. If he had bet $35 (2/3 pot) or more then a fold to the raise might be clear.

[akak]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm...Just ran the equity calculation. I put villain on:
A7s, A9, T8s, 97s, 98s, 86s, 65s, 55+
Hero is 51% favorite. So unless I missed a part of his range, I guess the answer is push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed 44 (bottom set) but it does not change equity much.

Our weighting of the hands in this range and subsequent decision depends on a read of how likely villain is to be splashing around in there with a suited connector against a $15 raise, then playing a draw or small pair aggressively.
One thing I mentioned to my friend was that his flop bet was somewhat small (1/2 pot) and may have invited the aggression. If he had bet $35 (2/3 pot) or more then a fold to the raise might be clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd play the majority of his range the same way. He's on the button, so he'll have position for the whole hand. The fact that you bet small on the flop weakens his range. Unless you want to jump up to the next level (no read given that we should), I think a push is correct.

[Man of Means]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm...Just ran the equity calculation. I put villain on:
A7s, A9, T8s, 97s, 98s, 86s, 65s, 55+
Hero is 51% favorite. So unless I missed a part of his range, I guess the answer is push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed 44 (bottom set) but it does not change equity much.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh yeah big flush + oc draws are missing too.
AQs, AJs, KQs, maybe AKs (might reraise pf), a couple others.

When we discussed this we gave him a range of
sets, overpairs, FD+OCs (AQdd type) and heavily discounted the SC's and smaller un-setted pocket pairs.