Another 100nl hand for erryone takin shots at it: AA on monotone flop

[Gelford]

You can tweak pokerstove. Each hand has 12 combinations (if unsuited and unpaired) ... and you can remove some of these to make a certain hand less likely.

I didn't do this, cos Im lazy, but you can.

[matrix]

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I quickly skimmed the posts, and you said that you ran numbers and its 50/50? If thats true, I hope you realize that if it really is 50/50 calling is clearly correct because of the dead money.

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I am still not sure it's 50/50 - as previously stated if it's 50/50 or better a call is "correct"

I am just saying that I don't call this deep unless there's a LOT of dead money going begging (there is 15% of starting stacks here so not that much) if I think my edge is < 3% or so.

Having run some numbers - some ranges came out 50/50 - the push range *I* would use in villains spot if I was playing LAG here has villain as a 60/40 fav.

I think a lot comes down to how well rolled you are - what your tolerance for variance is and what losing 200BB from your roll would do to your frame of mind later in the session.

All things being equal if you have the roll - and can lose this stack and reload with a smile without it tilting you and affecting your later play - by all means go for it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Maybe this effect is a little lesser playing at Absolute (?) where you can simply rebuy to 200BB's rather than being stuck with buying in for 100BB's.

I have noticed that my game suffers if I misplay a big pot early in a session and make a stupid call - so overall bearing all that in mind I still lean towards folding this.

kaz:

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why on earth would he be shoving 200bbs with a flush here. that seems ludacris to me.

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because people call with all kinds of stuff. If he is a decent reg - and plays LAG lots - and therefore is a decent LAG I think it's more likely he shows up here with a set/flush/combo draw - and you're very very unhappy to see any of those hands (as you'd be a 60/40 dog then at best)

If he's a lagdonk and is just generally overaggro and overplays onepair hands too much - then with that read I call here as I'd be much happier putting him on a lesser overpair with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Think about it - after all your thoughts at the time and discussion with your friend you read him for a weaker hand - you decided that 1pair was a big enough favourite here to play for stacks. A good LAG uses that and very rarely out and out pushes a hand that doesn't have you cooked here - because if say he has KhKx his push is shockingly bad - cos what worse hands are going to call??

Good LAGs pick up small pot after small pot with aggression - they almost never risk their entire stacks to do that when a large scary bet will suffice. When a good LAG pushes their entire stack into the middle they either have:

a) a solid read that villain will fold to a push but not fold to a lesser bet
- or -
b) a GREAT hand thats almost certainly a favourite over villains hand.

LAGs that frequently push stacks in without either of these are NOT decent LAG players imho.

LAGs that go too far with their stack and push too often where only better hands call them tend to go broke rather fast I think.

dying to know the results here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Gelford]

Since I feel we covered this hand very well, no harm in posting results and since I know them, I hope Kaz forgives me for spoiling the pleasure of posting the result for him.


Villian shoved AK with one heart and got pwned. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CashMoney1995]

fold.