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Old 10-31-2007, 03:45 PM
Gap23Razor Gap23Razor is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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Default Re: I turn a set and check-call

lots of interesting discussion on this hand concerning the villains holdings...i'd like to put in my thoughts, probably all has been said before

preflop possible hands of villain: 22, 33, 44, A5s, 65s, 54s, middle pair JJ-99...cold calling from the button with two players already in the pot and the blinds to act really doesn't seem too loose for all of the above hands, with potential of 4 opponents in the hand & having the button there are implied odds & position enough to justify cold calling i believe...43s, 32s too weak to play

flop action seems to say "made hand, but vulnerable"... thus middle pocket pairs are out (not made), and 65s too (65 is the nuts here so probably a slow play to the turn, why drive out the bb? just call and instead raise on the turn as it gets as much money in the pot as capping on the flop)

the flop action looks like an attempt to drive out gut shot draw that beat a set, split A5, or 54 two pair..

probability of each one of the above hands -- i think this is the calculation:

low set or A5s straight...6 x 3 combos of low set, 4 x 1 combo of A5s, 54s 4 x 1 - 22 out of 26 we are ahead on the turn when the T hits...

thus check/raise on the turn is the play, and call a 3 bet on the turn because of outs to make a house and beat the straight...or even leading out to three bet could be good to...here i think c/r is better as villain would likely just call out lead out or quit if we 3 bet him on the turn, but he might call a check/raise...does he think we are aggro? 3rd level thinking needed here to decide c/r or lead/3bet

i guess the designation of loose/passive is not precise enough for us all, as we each have our own interpretation of what those words mean when it comes to hand selection...and as you might guess, i figure betting is often protection motivated...
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