Sklansky Points

[Boris]

Inspired by last week's NFL Pitt v. Miami game...

How many Sklansky points did Nick Saban cost the Dolphins with his girl throw of the challenge flag?

Me and JA Sucker came up with ~.75 on back of the envelope calcs.

For those who didn's see the game here is the situation: NFL team has first and goal on the 1.5 yard line. What is the team's total point expectation from that situation?

To make things simple let's ignore the fact that a fumble isn't that costly since even if the defense recovers, the recovering team is pinned deep in enemy territory.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i dunno. the announcers were making it seem like a huge deal that the play wasn't challanged, but i always wondered the validity of challenging those plays that end up making it 1rst and goal on like the 1 yard line. if you are wrong you lose your chance to challange later on and you lose a time out too and even if you are right there is such a good chance they will TD anyways.

OTOH it is pretty huge if they can hold them to just a field goal.

i am pretty sure someone can find 1rst and goal goaline situational stats somewhere...

[MyTurn2Raise]

see the Rutgers-UNC college game from earlier this year

Touchdown called back and ball placed at 1. Fumble the next play. Rutgers flips field position. UNC falls short by one score.

It does happen. Unlikely, but happens. I go with 1 point.

[irvman21]

It was much worse when they didn't challenge the ridiculous spot on Batch's scramble in the first half, leaving Pitt with a 4th and 1 (which was converted) instead of the 4th and almost 3 it should have actually been.

[Boris]

I think not challenging would be way more costly in college football.

[BWebb]

Given the teams involved, I'd say it cost him about .5 points. Even without Jerome, the Steelers have an excellent offensive line and a TD will happen the vast majority of the time there.