Jermain Taylor vs. Kell Pavlik 9-29

[Tuds75]

Taylor - 126
Pavlik + 116

Rounds 11.5
OVER +111
UNDER -121

What a great fight that the boxing fans are finally going to be rewarded and will not have to pay out $49.95 for this fight (I guess we can be thankful neither of these guys are Mexican, because if they were Arum would have put this on PPV so fast your head would spin).

This is really a great match-up in so many ways. Both fighters are the obvious top 2 fighters at one of the glamor divisions in boxing (heavy and welter being the other). Each fighter is undefeated so "Somebodies' 'O' has got to go". Each is young and fresh and are entering the primes in their fighting career. And minus Taylor's last few performances each fighters fights a very entertaining style.

So on to the fight break down. I see Jermain Taylor as 2 separate boxers. The first was a rising prospect, the best young prospect in boxing and this was only a few years ago. He was using his jab and straight accurate punches to punish opponents. Taylor would then fight one of the best middleweights in boxing history(Bernard Hopkins) and ended his run of 20 straight title defense. He gave Hopkins his immediate rematch and in turn beat Hopkins again. Then after those 2 tough fights he goes out and fights Winky Wright a top 3 P4P fighter and a guy no one wanted to face and Taylor fought Winky to a hard fought draw. But that was the Jermain Taylor of a few years ago. The new Jermain has been fighting guys who are coming up in weight, so Jermain has a huge size difference over all of them and what does Jermain to in these fights with guys who shouldn't even be in the same ring with Taylor? Well Jermain doesn't finish either fighter, but also comes off looking like a totally different fighter from his championship fights with Hopkins and Taylor. Taylor looks sloppy and confused in the ring with the smaller guys. He abandoned his fierce jab and pinpoint straights and opted for large/long looping KO punches and more clinching then a middleweight should ever do. So the real question is which Jermain Taylor will show up.

I remember watching Taylor/Kassim Ouma and thinking if Taylor fought Edison Miranda, Miranda would no doubt finish Taylor. Well at that time Miranda was the young big hitting prospect in the Middleweight division and Kelly Pavlik was an after thought. Kelly and Miranda would meet last year and Kelly Pavlik schooled Miranda before finally KOing him. Pavlik showing everyone that HE was the big stronger puncher not Miranda and the HE Pavlik is the future of the division not Miranada. So to sum it all up, if Taylor fights like he did againt Ouma or Spinks, Pavlik will beat him and most there is a good chance of finishing him off...But that is big "if".

I think Jermain Taylor is a the better of the 2 fighters. That is to take nothing away from Pavlik who is great fighter, but Taylor is just a really special fighter. A similar example would be Mayweather/Hatton. Mayweather is a supernatural talent when it comes to boxing and Hatton is a one of the best right now, but Mayweather could go down as one of the best ever. So if Taylor can revert to the form that he used to get to the title and win I see him being able to go back to using his jab to control the fight and his opponent. Taylor will keep the big punching Pavlik on his heels and keep him unsteady with his jab and play of the jab to be able to land good scoring 1-2 combos. Pavlik is the type of fighter who "never takes a step backwards" and will be in Taylor's face all day, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. If Taylor is his old self he will jab and frustrate and pick apart Taylor. If Taylor fights like he have seen him fight recently, having Pavlik continue to stand in front of him and trade will frustrate Taylor and he will end up abandoning the jab looking to trade with the bigger puncher Pavlik, which I would guess is what Pavlik is looking/hoping for Jermain to do. If Jermain Taylor gets uncomfortable with Pavlik continuing coming foward throwing big strong punches, I think Taylor will be in for a long night.

So I will leave it up to you. For the people who think the the Jermain Taylor we have seen the last few fights is the Jermain Taylor that will show up on Saturday then I pick Pavlik, but if you think Jermain Taylor will go back to his fighting form that brought him championships/fame/money then I would go with Jarmain Taylor in this one.

I think the line should be a little more towards -165 to -175 Taylor, just on the fact he has fought such a higher caliber of fighter then Pavlik, but that alone doesn't mean Taylor is the obvious choice. There is a reason Pavlik's odds have been close to EVEN for a few months now.

I think this fight will go to the score cards more often then not, but I can definately see a KO by either fighter, but more likely by Pavlik.

Personal, If I was going to bet on this fight I would bet Taylor at -121 and then taking betting half of whatever I bet on Taylor straight-up, on Taylor by DEC at +256. I feel Taylor wins this fight be DEC 7/10 times (when he wins that is). But I will be rooting for Pavlik. I really like this guy and think he is a really down to earth guy who seems like a classy guy and it seems like he brings and makes every fight entertaining by trying to finish every opponent in every fight and which we know Jermain Taylor doesn't always show up and is happy just to survive then to win with flair.

Enjoy the Fight,
Tuds

[wiper]

i was going to make this thread, and give my opinion, but then, a) i'm white, and b) i live 1/2 mile from the youngstown city limits.

you could guess who i think is going to win.

i know probably 10 separate people going to atlantic city this weekend, which means the crowd will be way in favor of pavlik, because half the city of youngstown will be flying in on friday..plus, taylor's fans haven't had too much to be excited over the last few fights. youngstown fans are hungry from any kid of champion ever since the days of boom boom mancini..my grandpa still tells the story of watching him fight at a local high school football stadium..

pavlik WILL be coming forward throwing big, hard, straight punches, and the fight will bend on whether jermain can counter that...

my only choice right now is when to bet...will pavlik's price go up, or down?

p.s. ignore the white comment. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Tragichero]

I almost started a post on this tonight myself. In my honest opinion I think this fight will be an EASIER fight, opponent wise then Taylor's last fights with Spinks, Ouma, Wright and the Hopkins fights. I may take the Ouma fight out of there simply because in my opinion that was an easy fight to pick for Taylor. Spinks and Wright have made a living out of being elusive fighters. They both have mastered the art of hitting without being hit. Those fights are tough fights for ANYBODY. Pavlik's style is straight up and straight at you, fairly basic in the world of boxing. Don't get me wrong, Pavlik is highly effective, but it will be an easier fight for Taylor simply because the change of style.

Pavlik hasn't been here before. He did beat Miranda very impressively but for what it's worth Miranda was very weight drained. To prove it Miranda has already announced he's moving up to 168. To be fair though, I think Miranda was highly overrated to begin with. He is known for breaking Abraham's jaw, but couldn't finish him. Miranda hits hard, but his shots are very telegraphed. So, between being weight drained and not being exceptionally good to begin with, the win looks a little watered down.

I think Taylor will show all his tools against a fighter that actually comes after him. People forget, but Taylor hits hard, and Pavlik has been down before against Zuniga. Also, there are reports that Zuniga dropped Pavlik hard during a sparring session leading up to this fight. (For what it's worth, and it may not be much, I used to be a boxing writer, I still have some "inside sources, in no way should anyone thing I feel like a know it all, I am just telling you what I've heard). Zuniga has done most of his work at 154 pounds, but he also just got a big win at 168. Another question about Taylor is if his confidence is shot based on his performances against the previously mentioned fighters. Taylor has always seemed to want to prove something, but he has hardly been spectacular in his outings, despite winning the championship and being undefeated.


Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, but when I watch Pavlik fight I just feel something isn't right about him. If you are familiar with the book "Blink," it's sort of something like that. You can't pinpoint it, but something makes him seem "wrong." If my post was at all helpful before I probably just made a mockery of it now, but that's just how I feel. I think it may be that Pavlik's straight up style seems flawed to me. I don't know if he'll be able to change his style if he needs to. I am picking Taylor by knockout at + 310 on the greek. Once again, I probably took any sense of seriousness out by my last paragraph, but, it is what it is. Hope this helps in some way at all.

[Tragichero]

[ QUOTE ]
i was going to make this thread, and give my opinion, but then, a) i'm white, and b) i live 1/2 mile from the youngstown city limits.

you could guess who i think is going to win.

i know probably 10 separate people going to atlantic city this weekend, which means the crowd will be way in favor of pavlik, because half the city of youngstown will be flying in on friday..plus, taylor's fans haven't had too much to be excited over the last few fights. youngstown fans are hungry from any kid of champion ever since the days of boom boom mancini..my grandpa still tells the story of watching him fight at a local high school football stadium..

pavlik WILL be coming forward throwing big, hard, straight punches, and the fight will bend on whether jermain can counter that...

my only choice right now is when to bet...will pavlik's price go up, or down?

p.s. ignore the white comment. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you wanted us to ignore the "white comment" you could have deleted it instead of writing "ignore the white comment."

[Carlson411]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i was going to make this thread, and give my opinion, but then, a) i'm white, and b) i live 1/2 mile from the youngstown city limits.

you could guess who i think is going to win.

i know probably 10 separate people going to atlantic city this weekend, which means the crowd will be way in favor of pavlik, because half the city of youngstown will be flying in on friday..plus, taylor's fans haven't had too much to be excited over the last few fights. youngstown fans are hungry from any kid of champion ever since the days of boom boom mancini..my grandpa still tells the story of watching him fight at a local high school football stadium..

pavlik WILL be coming forward throwing big, hard, straight punches, and the fight will bend on whether jermain can counter that...

my only choice right now is when to bet...will pavlik's price go up, or down?

p.s. ignore the white comment. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you wanted us to ignore the "white comment" you could have deleted it instead of writing "ignore the white comment."

[/ QUOTE ] I'm a huge Jermain Taylor fan. I've watched A LOT of his fights. While he didn't look impressive against Ouma, Wright and Spinx, all of those fighters are awkward. Keep in mind how many times he teed off on Ouma even though Ouma who kept coming forward. Ouma has the BIGGEST HEART out of all the boxers and people in general. Ouma had to fight in a war when he was 6. Ouma is not the type of person that goes down EASY in a fight. So who has Pavlik fought? I see Pavlik as a "Great White Hope."(in response to your comment and this is not to be offensive). Whose the top person on Pavliks resume? Edison Miranda? Please. Edison wouldn't last a second against Jermain. However, I wouldn't totally discredit an undefeated fighter like Kelly Pavlik who did look good. I just won't bet to much on this fight,lol. I'm going for Jermaine straight up.

[Tragichero]

Sometimes with fighters who have yet to fight somebody well known it isn't always about Who they've beat, but it's about How they've beat them. I think this should be taken into account as well in regards to Pavlik. As a boxing fan I feel this is a great match-up and I'm glad it's not on PPV. I know I said I'm picking Taylor by KO, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pavlik wins by KO, while I'm putting a unit or two on Taylor at 3 to 1, I will also be enjoying the fight for what it is.

[Oliver Nipples]

I also looked to start a thread wondering if Pavlik is a steal at +116. I'm not arguing either side here, just love Kelly at +116 from a betting perspective. From a fan perspective I am looking forward to this, as this will deliver what Hatton/Mayweather won't.

Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

[Tragichero]

The other fight on this card should be interesting as well. Andre Berto vs. David Estrada. David Estrada is a very exciting fighter of the arturo Gatti mold. His fight with Kermit Cintron was amazing last year. Berto is a former olympian who has had very little trouble in the pro ranks so far, but he was dropped by Cosme Rivera fairly hard in his last fight. There are two ways to look at that. He got dropped by an 11 loss fighter, there are some flaws. Or, he survived his first real challenge with passing colors. I like to think the latter. You can get Estrada at almost 3 to 1, so might be a play. But Estrada, at 28, has been in a lot of tough fights, and a smooth boxer such as Berto will probably give him trouble.

[darko3131]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

[/ QUOTE ]

Really that is a pretty cool stat. I was there last week Emmanuel Steward and about 20 fighters from Knonk were there as well. It was cool because the summer is over so the place was deserted. It was literally my family, 2 others and all the boxers. So we basically ran into Jermain and the others everywhere- gym, dinner, pool etc.

Everyone was pretty chill, the workouts were open to the public so we went down for a few hours and stood next to the ring watching them spar, jump rope and hit the bags. Jermain Taylor autographed the beater he worked out in the last day and gave it to me. Andy Lee, Kermit Cintron, James Cintron, Jon Banks, and Aaron Pryor Jr. were the other auto's I got.

For what it is worth it didn't seem like Jermain was the one preparing for a huge fight this weekend. I only watched them train about 1-2 hours per day so its possible I just missed Jermain with his game face on, but he seemed to be goofing around some while a guy like Andy Lee was being a workout warrior. I'm just staying away from betting this fight now. I was on board for Pavlik but now after meeting him I can't root against Jermain. Great matchup that I don't mind watching as a fan and not having money at risk.

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
The other fight on this card should be interesting as well. Andre Berto vs. David Estrada. David Estrada is a very exciting fighter of the arturo Gatti mold. His fight with Kermit Cintron was amazing last year. Berto is a former olympian who has had very little trouble in the pro ranks so far, but he was dropped by Cosme Rivera fairly hard in his last fight. There are two ways to look at that. He got dropped by an 11 loss fighter, there are some flaws. Or, he survived his first real challenge with passing colors. I like to think the latter. You can get Estrada at almost 3 to 1, so might be a play. But Estrada, at 28, has been in a lot of tough fights, and a smooth boxer such as Berto will probably give him trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Estrada at 3-1 is a nice price. Estrada went all 10 rounds with Shane Mosely. Mosley might not be the biggest puncher, but he can do some damage. Estrada also went 10 hard rounds with Cintron. Berto is starting to face some real competition in his last few bouts. Before the Cosme Rivera fight, Berto last 2 opponets had a combined 26 losses and one of those guys had a losing record. If you go back even further to about only a year ago Berto was fought 3 guys with a combined 60 loses. I am not saying Berto is going to lose, but he looks like a master blaster in the ring, but a lot like Darchinayan and Rocky Juarvez, Berto could be another young fighter who gets built up to fast in the odds makers eyes so their odds are way overpriced, even thought they have yet to prove they are truly an elite level fighter.

Tuds