WCOOP main middle set scary board facing CRAI on turn

[MaverickUSC]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t43775)
MP3 (t10200)
Hero (t41296)
Button (t27250)
SB (t16533)
BB (t34732)
UTG (t21175)
UTG+1 (t32950)
MP1 (t29858)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t1200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t3000) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t2400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t7420</font>, MP2 calls t5020.

Turn: (t17840) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t9999</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t35155</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t37838

villian is 18.1/10.4/2.5, cool0813. Has seemed somewhat donkish thus far. At 100-200 he limped UTG w/KQo and called a raise to 1200.

Edit: Haven't seen him play aggressively in spots like that before though.

Devo

[betgo]

As played, I think you have to call the turn, because you have 10 outs against a straight, which is a little less than pot odds, and there are other hands he could have besides a straight or higher set.

When you bet this turn, what was your plan if villain checkraised? What was the rationale behind betting a little more than half pot?

[MaverickUSC]

Good question.

I really felt like he had either QQ+ or big clubs and wanted to protect/get value. My standard play in this situation is to check the turn behind and call most rivers. I honestly wasn't expecting to get check-raised at all which is prob a mistake on my part. I finally decided he had some 9xcc type hand and threw it away. I hadn't seen opponent do any goofy big bets like that yet so I gave it credit. I suppose though that if I bet the turn there I gotta be planning on calling a crai esp getting 3-1, but my read changed drastically there rather than thinking, "Oh, reads still good this guy is just full of it."

Devo

[betgo]

You are called 21K to win 59K, so you are putting in 21/80 = 26% of the money. You are 26% against a straight. So I think you have to call here, regardless of read.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3654298
pokenum -h 8d 8h - ac 9c -- jd th 8c 7c
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 8c 7c Jd Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 8h 10 22.73 31 70.45 3 6.82 0.261
Ac 9c 31 70.45 10 22.73 3 6.82 0.739

[Todd Terry]

Doesn't Villain show up with TT here quite frequently? Preflop and on the flop, I think TT and 99 play the same way. In one case, you have 10 outs (plus two 9s to split), the other, you have one (plus four 9s to split). Plenty of BBs left, I'd fold. And I'd play it the way you did.

[MLG]

i was at the table. I think against him its a giant mistake not to check the turn behind.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't Villain show up with TT here quite frequently? Preflop and on the flop, I think TT and 99 play the same way. In one case, you have 10 outs (plus two 9s to split), the other, you have one (plus four 9s to split). Plenty of BBs left, I'd fold. And I'd play it the way you did.

[/ QUOTE ]
He certainly could have a higher set, but there are a lot of hands you are way ahead of he could have.

I just think the call is very cEV+. I know we still have a decent stack if we fold, but I would gamble.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't at the table. I think against him its a giant mistake not to check the turn behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't at the table. I think against him its a giant mistake not to check the turn behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it is a mistake if you call the checkraise.

[eBo]

This is the perfect situation to check behind on the turn.