Weird river spot bottom boat stars 100k

[adanthar]

I'm a river raise meganit and even I shove this

[eymon222]

why wouldn't you push his min raise. that is just terrible play imho

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
trivial fold you're beat every time

edit: whens the last time you've seen a river bluff minraise???

[/ QUOTE ]
I see them all the time. In fact, I had a dream last night where I minreraised the river on a bluff after I bet and got check-raised, and got a fold.

[PhatPots]

yes, plenty of value for shoving, IMO. You could be called by any 8 thinking that you will be splitting the pot.

[eymon222]

[ QUOTE ]
It's crazy how running bad skews your judgement. I was convinced that he is calling with me beat way more than 50% of the time and was going to show up with A8.

Actually, though... I feel like one of my big leaks has been making dumb big bets on the end when I think I am good/should be good but am not going to get value from a worse enough hand enough of the time to merit shoving or whatever. Is my thinking skewed by being shown the nuts so many times on the river in spots like this lately? What might I be missing in my reads in these situations? Combination of both?

Like in this situation, how are we getting to the decision to shove there being correct considering ranges, unknowns tendencies to do stupid things, etc.

Devo

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't be results oriented, that is a big leak in itself. now to the read he limped utg you call. what hand limp utg without (specific reads on villians playing habits) sc down to 67 88+ A8s+ A10+ KQ.
now he calls your 3/4 pot bet after the flop (K87r) you can now eliminate some of his possible holdings. 88+,65,910,A8,KQ,. another 8 comes on the turn (Filling your boat) and he calls your 3/4 pot bet again. eliminate some more holdings only because you do'nt really care if he has some of the earlier holdings. now and A falls on the river. you make a pot size bet and he minraises you. imho you have 2 holdings that beat you 88 and A8s. you have to push his minraise if he has those hands and beats your fh bad luck for you but that is the varience of the game. you will lose with fh's it's going to happen embrace the varience of the game. My game improved dramaticaly when I finally accepted the variance of the game. I stopped changing the way I played based on some of those bad beats, stopped playing weak because all I saw was the monsters that the villian could have instead of a range of hands he could have.

[eymon222]

[ QUOTE ]
trivial fold you're beat every time

edit: whens the last time you've seen a river bluff minraise???

[/ QUOTE ]

wow I have read quite a few of your posts on this forum and respect your thoughs on the theory of the game. sorry but I push this 100% of the time. I think your way ahead more times than not and I think you'll get way more folds than you will get beat. Is a call not +ev and isn't folding playing results oriented?

My question should have said is a push not +ev?
eymon

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
What might I be missing in my reads in these situations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads are generally going to irrelevant in this spot online, unless you've got a fair sense of how many 8s he's limping utg with.

He's raising any 8 and often any ace if he's got that far with one and he's sometimes bluffing. He occasionally calls with an ace, has slowplayed KKK etc. and probably always calls with any 8.

If he's only limping 88, 87, 89 and a8 utg, then there doesn't seem much value in raising unless he's both got there and calls a river three bet shove with an ace. Personally, I generally wouldn't shove here on Stars because he doesn't both have and call with a worse hand anywhere near enough.

[Todd Terry]

I call here, since the combination of the UTG limp and the river minraise makes the chances of us getting beat high enough, and the chances of us getting called with a worse hand low enough. Yes, he'd call with 82o, but is he limping UTG with 82o? Hands that beat us: 88, 87, KK, AA, A8, K8. Hands that we beat that call: 89, AK (maybe would call), 86 and T8 maybe would limp UTG and call the flop bet. I think shoving here is significantly -cEV.

[Bakes]

push

and he's bb not utg limper...

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
push

and he's bb not utg limper...

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh. Yeah shove then.