help me with this ev calc/'theory' question

[kaby]

so we have AK on a Ax8h3h flop

some dead money from preflop

flop: villain checks, we bet 1$, he raises to 5$, we decide to call (4$) to fold a heart turn and get it in on a blank

1) when he bets a heart turn and we fold, is our EV 0$ or -4$?
2) when he check/folds a blank turn to our bet, did we win (preflop dead money + 10$) or did we win (preflop money + 6$) with our bet? did we risk (turn bet) to win (preflop dead money +10$) or did we risk (flop call + turn bet) to win (preflop dead money +6$)?

3) when he bets a blank turn and we shove - and we know he calls 100%, do we risk (turn shove) to win (preflop money + 10$ + his bet + his call) or do we risk (flop call + turn shove) to win (preflop money + 6$ + his bet + his call)


hope my question is clear... basicly when we call a flop raise to see what the turn card is, should our flop call be seen as dead money when calculating the EV of turn play (that we didn't risk and can win) or not?

i bolded the answers that i believe to be correct, but i'd like a checkup

[Sanderrp]

You're looking at the EV of the entire post-flop line from the moment villain raises you.
This means that you need to see everything you plan to do after being raised as one move and hence as one big calculation.

The only way your flop call becomes dead money in the calculation is if you start calculating EV of your turn move completely seperately from the flop decision.

So, to answer the questions:
1) The EV of calling flop to fold turn is $-4
2) We risked our call and bet to win the preflop & $6(your dead $1 bet and his $5 raise).
3) We risk flop call + turn shove to win it all baby.

In general, when you are calculating the EV of a multi-street plan, any betting you do as part of that plan is money you risk, not dead money.

[Paul Thomson]

what's up with all the basic math ev equations today... there should be a ton of posts in the sticky section that has basic ev calcs.

[Aquadougs]

1) No, you cant tell what the EV is before you know the river action and his range.
2) You win what lies in the pot (included what you have put in), nothing else
3)You risk what you put in (the shove)

[Sanderrp]

[ QUOTE ]
1) No, you cant tell what the EV is before you know the river action and his range.
2) You win what lies in the pot (included what you have put in), nothing else
3)You risk what you put in (the shove)

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just plain wrong, for as far as I know.

Ad 1, I don't see how his range matters at all. We're planning to fold if he bets, full stop. The EV of the fold is completely independent of his range or the river action. We're just giving up on the hand, so we're losing our flop call (since we're looking at it as one big move). Whether he has nuts 100% or air 100% is irrelevant, we're not going to be losing more or less by folding there.

Now, if we were going to determine whether calling or folding a heart turn is a better option his range does become relevant, and river action might become relevant depending on how you want to evaluate the hand. However, his range only becomes relevant to evaluate the EV of a call, not to evaluate the EV of a fold.

Ad 2, that's incorrect again. If we look at the turn action completely independently we indeed win what lies in the pot including our previous call, since that has now become dead money.
However, we planned this hand here. Our flop call is part of the move to shove turn, and hence we are also risking our call. Incidentally, in a single move you cannot possibly win what you risk and hence put in the pot.

Ad 3, see 2.

I think understanding the EV of an entire line like this is pretty essential to understanding the *real* investment/return of hands.