TT - scary flop

JJack · #1 10-08-2007, 08:13 PM

$0.50/$1.00

First see villain - no stats , no reads

MP3 ($24.25)
CO ($50.17)
Button ($14.85)
SB ($20.05)
BB ($17.90)
UTG ($30.95)
UTG+1 ($36.27)
UTG+2 ($53.75) (Hero)
MP1 ($34.75)
MP2 ($17.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls,

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( 3.75BB )
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, 2 folds,

Final Pot: 5.0BB

At flop I get is 10:1 and if I assume villain will bet all streets then I will pay:
5 SB to win 15 SB - if he will bet all streets = 1:3
3 SB to win 13 SB - if he only C-bet at turn and c/f river = about 1:3
1 SB to win 10 SB - if he makes bluff/weak semi bluff and he will fold turn = 1:10

What is standard move here?
Its sounds I have to win about 25% to make profit.

Gib · #2 10-08-2007, 08:20 PM

That's an extremely dry flop, I'm not sure if villain would raise as a bluff cause of the flop texture. I prefer to just fold here against an average 50/1 unknown.

Edited to add: actually saying "extreme" is a bit over the top @ first glance I thought the 4 was a 2! Now that would make it extremely dry!

Landonfan · #3 10-08-2007, 09:16 PM

I tend to look up an unknown here, though I question how correct it is. You'll sometimes see underpairs/6x/a complete bluff.

Smurph64 · #4 10-08-2007, 09:40 PM

with no reads I usually look them up and call down first time.

I rarely play with no reads.

I don't like donating.

You can fold but I think button could be raising lots of hands here. Anyone that cold calls 2 on the button and hits a jack isn't the best player in my books.

If he hit a set, he misplayed the hand so I want to record something here and call down.

Niediam · #5 10-09-2007, 01:12 AM

I call down.

At worst villian is no longer unknown. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

sharpie · #6 10-09-2007, 01:39 AM

Call down. He should be raising the flop with any made hand, and you beat enough IMO.

janne_oksanen · #7 10-09-2007, 02:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that cold calls 2 on the button and hits a jack isn't the best player in my books.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify: You think that AJ should have made it 3 bets and KJ should have folded?

JJack · #8 10-09-2007, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Call down. He should be raising the flop with any made hand, and you beat enough IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ye, if he is thinking player then he should raise to protect his hand.
So when it would be HU then I have easier decision to fold at this dry flop, right?

Xoxide · #9 10-09-2007, 09:26 AM

fold without a read on the player, AJ could have just called preflop depending on raise size

KitCloudkicker · #10 10-09-2007, 09:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold without a read on the player, AJ could have just called preflop depending on raise size

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are never seeing a showdown b/c you are folding in situations like this how on earth can you get a read