20 Mirage

MitchL · #1 07-12-2007, 04:43 AM

Live spot I dont think Ive ever been in. Im running bad in wild game. I am also playing bad.

I open JJ and tipsy, probably normally tight but loosening up in the spirit of the game coldcalls. He has coldcalled the last 3 times Ive opened. I am also getting good hands and not showing much down. Pretty sure he thinks I am overaggro and on tilt. Fishy mp also cold calls.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I have no club

I bet, villain raises, mp folds I call.

turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

check, bet call.

river: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

My plan?

SNOWBALL · #2 07-12-2007, 05:58 AM

CC methinks. If he's tipsy, then the first bluff raise means that the 2nd and third bet are going in almost regardless of what he has. The only reason to bet the river is to get value out of a pocket pair lower than jacks but higher than fives, and wouldn't many of these 3 bet you before the flop given your read of him?
Hope to CC and get shown a missed flush or a broadway hand that got super out of line.

goofball · #3 07-12-2007, 06:01 AM

I think you should 3bet the flop and take his ass to valuetown.

On the river I think you should donk for 2 reasons. First, value from everything you beat (and everything you beat checks behind). Second, induce a frustrated bluff raise if he was FOS.

SNOWBALL · #4 07-12-2007, 06:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river I think you should donk for 2 reasons. First, value from everything you beat (and everything you beat checks behind). Second, induce a frustrated bluff raise if he was FOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

agh, u really wanna call a raise here? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I think he could be FOS with a FD or just utter trash and decided to take a stand. I'd rather collect that donation at the river. There's also some chance (small small small) that he bets with a showdown hand like 88 trying to fold out TT. People who are drunk often don't like to stop betting once they start for any reason IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should 3bet the flop and take his ass to valuetown.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems too likely to fold out hands that have very few outs against us that will continue to bluff.

Dov · #5 07-12-2007, 06:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
CC methinks.

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I think C/R is a better line here, especially if he's drunk. The only hands you lose to are AA, 55, AJ, and A5.

Many hands will still call the raise, including aces and big pocket pairs (b/c he's drunk or otherwise unable to laydown good preflop hands)

I think you will win an extra bet far more often than you will get 3 bet here.

By the way, I call the 3 bet too and expect to be shown AT-AK most of the time.

private joker · #6 07-12-2007, 06:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think C/R is a better line here, especially if he's drunk. The only hands you lose to are AA, 55, AJ, and A5.

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Awful. OP loses to any Ace.

SNOWBALL · #7 07-12-2007, 06:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think C/R is a better line here, especially if he's drunk. The only hands you lose to are AA, 55, AJ, and A5.

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villain has been coldcalling a lot so he could easily have any ace. I honestly think we're behind here and are only making money from the size of the pot, his bluffs, and his BAC.

Dov · #8 07-12-2007, 06:32 AM

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Awful. OP loses to any Ace.

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Oops.

Your right, of course.

That's why I read the boards instead of playing when I first wake up.

Thanks for the correction.

Dov

goofball · #9 07-12-2007, 07:32 AM

I'm pretty sure 99 makes up at least 80% of his range :-)

afish · #10 07-12-2007, 07:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should 3bet the flop and take his ass to valuetown.

On the river I think you should donk for 2 reasons. First, value from everything you beat (and everything you beat checks behind). Second, induce a frustrated bluff raise if he was FOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with both pieces of advice. If you three bet the flop, a lot of players will drop anything short of trips and four-bet with trips. Calling the raise and going into check call mode is correct.

On the river, there is no way you'll induce a bluff raise. A check call will get more value. I wouldn't want to fold to a river raise, but I'd really expect to see aces full almost every time there was a raise.