3-way river with 2nd pair. Valuetown?

[milesdyson]

i call flop a lot because i don't care about protecting my hand lol. plus if i raise flops like this how can i get my af under 1?

[iceit]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya that range looks about right. I do think he has 98 and T8 as well tho and lower pp's and something like bottom pair.

Hmmm. Looks like I missed a bit of value

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I really think that you did. I think that if he were to raise he would of done so on the previous streets so I don't believe that you have to worry too much about a c/r on the river. As played, villain will show AK here a lot of the time.

[vmacosta]

I sometimes just call the flop:

1. some fish will fold A6 here for 2 bets but will put in 1 bet on every street with them.
2. you have all the good backdoor draws
3. your hand is not that good
4. there aren't many draws so when you raise your hand is exactly what they'll put you on (though admittedly the pot's big enough that this is almost irrelevant).

[milesdyson]

i played this hand earlier this month

$5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, MP folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.60 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4.80 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (7.80 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 9.80 BB

Results:
Hero shows Td, Th (One pair, tens).
CO mucks Ac, 2c.
Outcome: Hero wins 9.45 BB.
($3.50 Rake)

[Oink]

1) If I raise the flop and button calls the TAG in BB will reveal his hand. This info can be pretty valuable IMO.

2) Fish might call 2 bets with A6 and call a bet on both turn and river. He also might call 2 bets with T8 or fold with T8. Either way I win compared to calling.

The only thing that worries me here is BB's range and whether I even have a hand to protect. Putting him on 99, ATs, AJo, KQs or better I guess its close tho.

So yeah maybe not 100% sure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Miles hand might be differenet because I dont know anything about his villains. But as a default I'd be inclined to say he misplayed it. But I dont enjoy to disagree with Miles here so I am prolly wrong

[vmacosta]

agreed, miles hand is def different. there are some basic similarities tho:
1. your hand fairs decent (but not great) hu vs. the flop aggressor
2. money the fish puts in with no raise is probably worth more than money the flop aggressor puts in if you raise.

that said, i think raising either flop is fine and possibly correct. i'd even suspect that raising the turn in the miles hand is ok too.

i'd try to approximate a solution mathematically but fish are just too hard to pin down on a range/strategy and i have a hard enough time just solving hu steal situations vs. a 27/20 abc tag. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd try to approximate a solution mathematically but fish are just too hard to pin down on a range/strategy and i have a hard enough time just solving hu steal situations vs. a 27/20 abc tag. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree about the fish stuff. I'd say that there is a fair chance that you end up making the wrong conclusions because the assumptions on what the fish have and how he will play it are so tough to make correctly.


One difference between my hand and Miles hand is that BB is donking. This indicates to me at least that BB in his hand might be more erratic than BB in my hand. The first point in my post before is really the one I think there is most value in. Playing marginal hands aggro in multiway pots will get a lot of info from ABC TAGs hand because they play so straightforward in those spots.

[vmacosta]

oink,
you are talking about this, right?
"1) If I raise the flop and button calls the TAG in BB will reveal his hand. This info can be pretty valuable IMO.
"

I must say, I am having trouble figuring out the value in the information. if i read the OP right, the tag is oop and the pot's big enough that you are going to see the river as long as the fish doesn't raise.

if tag 3-bets flop, you pay 2.5 bb and fold river UI.
if tag 3-barrels (you just call flop), you pay 2.5 bb and see a showdown.
if tag screwplays the turn (you just call flop), you pay 2.5 BB and fold river UI.

The only time I can think of when a flop raise is good is when tag has {A-hi,PP} in which case raising the flop usually has higher eV. However, the thing is, the multiway nature of the hand makes the tag much less likely to put in 3BB with {A-hi,PP} UI (hu against a tag who doesn't trust you will net 3BB much more often). So while {A-hi/PP} is a substantial portion of tag's range, you still only gain fractions of a SB in eV from a flop raise against it.

Again, I am mostly just playing devil's advocate here and challenging you on th quoted statemen. I think almost all of your other points are excellent.

[Oink]

The fact that BB plays his hand face up means I can play my hand perfectly against his range.

Yeah it costs the same to see a SD by just calling down or to call flop 3-bet and fold turn UI (or b/f if he c/r turn - still 3-way)

Sure when I end up folding the turn to his c/r I will fold a 5 outer sometimes.

But I will also maximize my earnings whenever he has like 99 and call down or when he stays in and decides to call river with AK HU - I have seen worse call downs.

But obviously I need to vb river then. Which I missed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

But when I am ahead I win more and when I am behind I loose the same. Makes sense?


Regarding the third guy. I am not sure raising or calling is best against his range. He is a huge loose passive fish. So to be honest I think he is calling down with any pair and not folding any draw. This allows me to maximize when I am ahead of BB and fish has AT, T8, T9, K9, bottom pair, pp etc.

I dunno. Without turning this into a math/GT project I dont think I can explain myself any better.

Maybe I am overvaluing the info I gain from BB playing ABC in multiway pots.

[frenchpignouf]

[ QUOTE ]


Maybe I am overvaluing the info I gain from BB playing ABC in multiway pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

The info on BB is not very useful in this hand (usually it is). For example your river decision in this hand is not easy, but it will be helpful with a T on the river.

I like raising the flop, because the range of Oink for BB is little too narrow, we must add some random average hands. We have a small equity advantage with the backdoors imo. The T outs and the backdoor straight are quite dirty 3 way with a lot of RIO (maybe the info given by raising on the flop would be helpfull in this case). We can take quite often a free card or a free showdown if a A or K falls. We win the max when we are behind and we hit something, we have around 7 outs, it happens quite often. As Vmacosta and Oink said, we can't loose much by raising in any case.

It is very hard to know (maybe impossible) what is the best line against the fish, but I would say a raise on the flop can wake up the fish. If we just call, he's in calldown mode and he resumes to watch TV.