Do I fold too much?

[jba]

are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[Gurravasa]

A LP could have KXs in spades and K8 as well as KQ. He could also have a slowplayed set and are afraid you'll check behind. I haven't done the calculations but I would be surprised if you have odds to continue here.

[yourface]

[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you give MP some combos of dumb stuff like TJ, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], worse Q, maybe even a smaller pair to go along with 2pair and set hands you can easily get >12%. that is including UTG with a range of flush draws, pairs, and discounted sets and 2pairs.

we've all seen passive players make really dumb plays because they suck at poker. a big pot is not the place to make a laydown like this

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you give MP some combos of dumb stuff like TJ, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], worse Q, maybe even a smaller pair to go along with 2pair and set hands you can easily get >12%. that is including UTG with a range of flush draws, pairs, and discounted sets and 2pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

seriously keep adding hands until you get to 12% and see what a joke it is. post it.

[yourface]

I think my range for UTG here is reasonable


if MP can only have 2pair+;

Board: 2d 8s Qs Kd

oink: 08.565% { AsQc }

MP: 80.461% { 8c8d, 2c2s, 2h2s, KQs, K8s, K2s, Q8s, KQo, K8o, K2o, Q8o }

UTG: 10.974% { 8c8d, 2h2s, AdQd, AsJs, As9s, A8s, As6s, As4s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, K8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Q4s+, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s6s, 86s+, AcQd, AcQh, AdQh, A8o, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, K8o, Q8o+, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }


so oink is in pretty rough shape. but if we add say 1/2 the combos of TJ;

Board: 2d 8s Qs Kd

oink: 19.547% { AsQc }

MP: 66.463% { 8c8d, 2c2s, 2h2s, KQs, K8s, K2s, Q8s, JcTc, JhTh, KQo, K8o, K2o, Q8o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }

UTG: 13.990% { 8c8d, 2h2s, AdQd, AsJs, As9s, A8s, As6s, As4s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, K8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Q4s+, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s6s, 86s+, AcQd, AcQh, AdQh, A8o, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, K8o, Q8o+, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }

and I think MPs range is likely wider

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is a LAG/TAG. Seems ok, not your standard german ABC clone so he prolly has a brain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think this fold is just fine if u have a good read. Normally a donk means villain improved, so we have max 5 outs. But some of them may be tainted.

[jba]

AK is way more likely for MP than JT

[yourface]

yah AK should be in there for sure, but that isn't too many combos (also discounted somewhat due to preflop) and I think other hands we beat should be in there too.

the stove results show that because the 2pair+ hands have relatively few combos, adding even a couple strangely played weaker pairs or draws to villain's hand range increases our equity significantly

edit: clarity

[JSmith2007]

He could have a very wide range of hands, but I'm not too sure Im folding here. I don't think he would call the flop with AK, knowing he's probably drawing very thin, with a queen there figuring someone has KQ or AQ. He could, but I don't see AK as a very possible hand (IMO)

I would call here, folding isn't bad and calling isn't bad IMO. If he had a set, he'd be 3-betting before you did as well.

K8 is possible or any other two pair, but it's not an easy laydown IMO. I would call it down just to see what he has at times too, get a little better read on him. But that's just me.

[Scary_Tiger]

Nah don't fold.