AQ: Rivered trips but now he leads for pot...wtf?

[loosbastard]

Villain is like 38/22/2 over a smallish sample and seems pretty bad.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $44.50
BB: $144.75
UTG: $43.85
MP: $106.60
Hero (CO): $196.95
BTN: $97.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, BTN folds, BB calls $8.00

Turn: ($27) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, BB calls $20.00

River: ($67) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $67.00</font>, Hero ?

[loosbastard]

oops...deleted

[VINNY VT]

ewww pretty bad card for you on the river, this is screaming fold to me against a decent player (just got that I'm beat feeling), what do you beat? AJ, Ax, idk tough call if you make it. QJ, a10, a6, maybe even TT he flips up

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
ewww pretty bad card for you on the river, this is screaming fold to me against a decent player (just got that I'm beat feeling), what do you beat? AJ, Ax, idk tough call if you make it. QJ, a10, a6, maybe even TT he flips up

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that a bad card for hero on the river? The river card changed absolutely nothing. Given stats and your read, I have to call here.

[mason55]

this guy can have pretty much any Ax and he thinks this card improved him. call. you'll be beat some times but you're ahead 1 in 3

[cbloom]

Against someone who's not totally retarded this is a fold, they don't play Ax like this, must be a str8 or a house. Against a drooler, call.

[Colours]

If you don't call this river, you should't be betting turn.

[RainbowBright]

Does anyone like checking the flop? I guess we're still likely to get calls from KQ and AJ type hands and possibly TJ type hands. But I still think checking the flop might be good.

The biggest problem against checking the flop (outside of giving a free card) is that we're not likely to get another bet out of a worse hand by showing weakness on the flop.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't call this river, you should't be betting turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly the opposite. Against a decent opponent you should bet the turn planning to not put any more money in. If you check the turn you should call the river, but checking this turn would be bad.

[Colours]

" Villain is like 38/22/2 over a smallish sample and seems pretty bad " This is a decent villian?

I'm not betting this turn and folding this river to this guy.