Party 10/20. Help me with river play please

[Oink]

Limper is huge donk. 75/25 type

Villain is 28/22 6-handed with SD stats of 40/52. Thats datamined over 1600 hands. No real reads but seems solid.


Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero pukes and does what? </font>

b/f, b/c, c/f?

[callmedonnie]

I would check call because that is definitely the worse card in the deck for you. I don't think bet/folding is bad, but I believe you get called by less hands you beat because of what a bad card the river is, making the line less valuable.

[yourface]

sicko spot

what do you put villain's range at? I'm thinking like [A2-A5,55-66,88-JJ,TcJc,TcKc,KcJc] am I missing something?

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
sicko spot

what do you put villain's range at? I'm thinking like [A2-A5,55-66,88-JJ,TcJc,TcKc,KcJc] am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Add Qx hands and more Ax. I think he calls me down with Ax as long as no flush card comes

[jstill]

id bet fold, theres nothing he needs to bluff raise here hes either got Qx Ax a flush or a PP with showdown value vs ur range. Theres really no metagame considerations since he doesnt know u, and someone who raises 55-JJ Qx on this river will likely not have solid seeming stats.

u could ck fold i guess if hes not bluffign enough when u ck to call and u think he can fold underpairs on this river but I think betting has enough value vs players who are SD bound with 55-JJ here (ur protected pot cr here knocking out a player gets less respect IMO then when it goes bet fold u raise or bet call u raise for sure, and he probably shows down quite a bit based on his stats altho not converged probably) and folding to a bet if u ck getting 8:1 will kinda sting since he could vb QJ QT or Q9 here perhaps, if hed iso raise the bad limper with the latter two. And since I dont want to fold if i ck (its close) id rather bet defensively and get value from worse PPs that will ck behind but mite call a bet some % of the time, I really think 88-JJ here still call a river bet just hoping u have a worse PP.

I think ck calling is the worst line followed closely maybe interchangably with bet call

[yourface]

oh yah forgot Qx. add 9Qs TQ JQ then. he'd give more action with KQ AQ right? he'll look you up with PPs&lt;Q right?

I think we can b/f river. I don't think the bet is for value, but I think it is less -ev than b/c c/c or c/f.

he probably won't raise a bare ace here and if we c/c he's going to check behind most if not all of the hands we beat unless he is turning his hand into a bluff. that's a concern because the river is the perfect bluff card and the pot is big so I wouldn't feel that comfortable c/f.

[vmacosta]

I agree with most of the stuff jstill said. I'd bet if I'm pretty sure most PPs are still in his range (i.e. he's not one of these agro guys that insists on 3-betting the flop with a wide range). I'm not sure you squeeze any value out of this bet except for from worse Qx, but c/f means you lose a 8 bb pot witht the best hand occasionally and that obv sucks. I wouldn't even consider c/c or b/c unless this guy is a all-out maniac.

[yourface]

I was thinking about this on the way home and if he raises we could 3bet as a bluff

there are very few flushes in his range and he has to fear us having 35s or a flush. if he is the kind of player that will raise this super scare card river as a bluff or try for a thin value raise with Ax, we could steal the pot

not that I'd ever have the balls to run this play, but what do you think?

[mvoss]

I bet/fold. I don't like check/calling without a solid read saying he'll bet worse hands here, and I have a hard time seeing a solid guy raising this river with worse hands.

[danzasmack]

EDIT

just saw there was a flush

b/f