Panel hand #2 - river part 2 panel review

[FUJItheFISH]

You actually bet. MP1 calls, MP3 calls, button raises, hero?

Pot is 23.25 big bets when it is your turn.

(7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

<font color="blue">Panelist 1
I hate that raise, but to me that would say that he held a pair of 2s the whole time and just hit a boat. No way! Even the worst player wouldn't have released those ducks earlier. I think we're looking at a worse flush here, but I just call going for the other overcalls. </font>

<font color="red">Panelist 2
This comes unexpected. Button's play looks much like a sandbagged monster (77, or Tx with a paired x, but maybe also only a lone T, given that he's loose) or a weaker flush. We may have beat BB, but we also may lose. Since nobody else raised we can assume to have the other players beat. This is the perfect time to go for overcalls, so call. </font>

<font color="purple">Panelist 3
Man, I am the best. Button obviously has a flush. The only question here is whether to go for overcalls.

You collect a maximum of two more bets by going for overcalls. You'll get at least one more if you raise, the only question is whether we can assign a probability to the chance of getting called by one of the other players in the hand, or it getting capped by the button.

I'm bad at math, so I won't even bother giving you some lackluster attempt at an analysis of the chance of this happening.

The pot is large, and I think you get the greatest chance of winning the maximum by raising. So, yeah, I raise it. </font>

<font color="green">Panelist 4
The button raise has me a bit confused, he raised the flop and just called the check raise on the turn. I still say calling down is the correct answer. He should be aware of the flush and only raising with a better hand with that many folks in the pot. This is a crying call. </font>
</font>

*Edit credited to Aussie, thanks.

[MrWookie]

I was only scared of MP1 in this hand, not button. As played, I 3bet and hope these guys can't let go of their worse hands.

[DrModern]

Why are panelists 3 and 4 saying exactly the same thing here?

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
I was only scared of MP1 in this hand, not button. As played, I 3bet and hope these guys can't let go of their worse hands.

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I think that for this to be correct, you would have to be reasonably certain that they would both call 2 more BBs. I believe that you will most likely lose at least one of them.

Going for the overcalls would very likely earn us 2 BBs. Either with a raise or by calling, we will most likely earn the identical amount and we do not run the risk of getting capped by Btn, which would surely cost us 2 more BBs. Btn may have played a FD like this but he may have played 77 or 66 like this also.

[MrWookie]

We're not guaranteed to get both, though. If we only get one overcall after we call, raising is a wash with calling, since BB is almost certain to call our raise. If we raise and get just one of them to call, that's a 1 BB improvement over calling and that's definitely not out of the question, esp. from MP1. Ttwo cold calls, well, I'd have to change my pants. If button caps, I still expect to win a good portion of the time. This is a flush waaaaay more often than a boat.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
I was only scared of MP1 in this hand, not button. As played, I 3bet and hope these guys can't let go of their worse hands.

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