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#1
10-09-2006, 06:47 PM
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Panel hand #2 - flop panel review
You actually raise and everybody calls. 5 Players to the flop for 10.5 small bets.
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero? <font color="blue">Panelist 1 I pretty much got one the best flops I could get, aside from the board being paired, which sucks. I know any tens will be along for the ride, and I don't mind. Only bad part is, if I hit my flush, I can't exactly use the raising rock since I won't have the nuts...unless the turn and river are the KQh. I was the last aggressor so a continuation bet is expected. I'm not going to disappoint them. I figure I have the following estimated outs (over cards: 2/6, hearts: 7, backdoor straight: 1, TOTAL: 10). With 10 estimated outs, that gives me about a 40% chance to win the hand. I'm putting in 1/5 of the money and expect to remove twice that, so I bet out. </font> <font color="red">Panelist 2 We have a flush draw and overs, quite good, but we have to be aware of the paired board. If noone has a T or 77 we have a monster draw. Since we raised preflop we should continue to show aggression until someone tells us he has a T. So we should definitely bet. If we're raised we have to reevaluate since we can't necessarily pump this to infinity. </font> <font color="purple">Panelist 3 You have the nut flush draw against four opponents who saw you raise on the previous round. They're expecting you to bet here, and so may be more likely to call than usual (though that already might be quite likely). One bad situation that could arise is: you bet, he next opponent to act raises, prompting folds from many other players. This brings down your pot-equity edge. Even so, this scenario is not tremendously likely to arise, and you are likely to get calls from your loose-passive opponents. I bet here. </font> <font color="green">Panelist 4 First thing I am looking at is pot size. Other things to consider, I have the nut flush draw with two over cards. I am out of position with 4 people left to act. The only thing that is scary is the paired board. The board also has a double gapper. I bet out. I have a very strong drawing hand that can improve to the nuts. I also want to continue showing strength on a scary board. If raised, I will call behind. If I check this hand through, there is a strong chance that it will be two bets back to me. A semi intelligent player may raise a bet behind me to protect his hand in a large field. Other players sometimes put two bets into a paired board. Either way there are to many people left to act to be certain. I will still have the odds to call if it is 2 bets back.(If I were to check) </font> 
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#3
10-09-2006, 08:31 PM
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Re: Panel hand #2 - flop panel review
I bet here, but one thing I don't agree with in the commentary is the implication that having raised preflop is what makes a bet correct. I bet because I have a huge draw and probably an equity advantage, on a flop where people will often peel complete garbage and can't necessarily expect someone to bet this flop for me unless they have trips. I certainly wouldn't bet again if my hand were A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but I would bet this hand even if I misclick-checked preflop.
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#4
10-10-2006, 12:30 PM
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Re: Panel hand #2 - flop panel review
Xhad,
I don't think any panelists implied that a PFR is what makes a bet correct. I think the suggestion was rather that a bet has a slightly higher probability of getting called because the fish are expecting a c-bet following the PFR.
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#6
10-10-2006, 02:34 PM
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Re: Panel hand #2 - flop panel review
[ QUOTE ]
Xhad, I don't think any panelists implied that a PFR is what makes a bet correct. [/ QUOTE ] Really? [ QUOTE ] I was the last aggressor so a continuation bet is expected. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Since we raised preflop we should continue to show aggression until someone tells us he has a T. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] They're expecting you to bet here [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I also want to continue showing strength on a scary board. [/ QUOTE ] Panelist 3 gave the added reason that people might be more likely to call your bet "because it's a cbet" but the rest sound like having raised preflop is a huge component to why they bet, which imo is just wrong against this many opponents.
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