panel hand - turn - panel review

[Bilgefisher]

The T has done nothing for me. I just don't put the emp player on anything less then top pair. MUBS maybe, but seeing a horrible player donk 2 straight streets leads me to beleive I am beat. I have no issues releasing this hand. By my estimate the pot is 5bb. I lost both my draws, so really on 5 cards help me. 2 Tens and 3 queens. If emp is holding JT or QJ, I'm really up a creek. I fold.

[Ignignokt]

If anything, this exercise has shown us how vital reads are.

[VickreyAuction]

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post it in SSSH too.

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Post the stakes if you're going to post it in SSSH.

[btspider]

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post it in SSSH too.

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Post the stakes if you're going to post it in SSSH.

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stakes are relatively unimportant imo.. what do you think changes from 1/2 to 5/10 in how this hand should be played?

[drzen]

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What I want to know is, why bother learning about pot odds etc if I ignore them when it suits?

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b/c we might have the best hand. the best hand doesn't need outs.

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Dude, as I say, the fish always believe they might have the best hand. They call us down with middle pair to our great delight, and they believe they're winning. I am trying to not be a fish, not talk myself into joining them.

My opponents tend to be passive if they're useless. If they donk it into me when I've raised, I credit them with top pair on a flop like unless I have a read. I might be folding the best hand from time to time but I'm not losing much because I will generally be right. These guys love to check and call! They don't like betting out. They like to be winning before they do.



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I suspect this hand has been chosen because we river something though or our opponent chose this hand to bet bottom pair all the way, so all those who think there is anything to do here but fold will be rewarded.

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Me either. But of course we should not learn the results.


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But I sincerely hope not. Most times, raising PF, calling flop, raising turn, calling river will cost 4.5BB. My way would have cost 1SB. I like my way.

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higher variance doesn't mean less EV. we wouldn't call riv if we raised the turn. it'd be a free showdown raise for most suggesting it.

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I'm fully aware that you have to accept variance if you want to make value. I'm suggesting it simply is not +EV to try to power a pot away from a guy who likely has us beat.

And we are not taking a free showdown at the river. We are "betting for value"!

The panel have simply decided that "bad" means "will bet any piece of the board or nothing at all. Once you've made that decision, it's easy to spew bets in this hand.

[drzen]

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the read is vague, and thus perfect to create arguments about the turn play here.

in the first post in this series, emp was described as "loose" and "bad in all ways, shapes and forms." it's easy to interpret this in ways that would lead to different turn plays in this hand. also, UTG is described as "loose and weak." i don't know what "weak" means, but if that means he would fold a low pair here after i call, then i can see how different actions result in different mistakes by the villains.

the reads are too vague and hard to interpret and this decision is too close for me to really feel strongly about any option here. im going to go with the assumption that the EMP player has any flopped pair or pocket pair, so i will basically assume that i am ahead of him on this turn about 60-65% of the time. given this assumption it would seem that raising is the best play. however, if the other player will make bad folds if i call (if that's what "weak" means), raising loses some of its benefits. hopefully everyone can see the dilemma i have here.

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So, basically, you're just going to assume whatever means you can raise or call. We don't know much about our opponent, although we all know that the default is that they don't bet if they don't have TP, but you're assuming *based on absolutely nothing* that he has a pair that you beat.

I think it's a characteristic of the fish that they take the most positive view of their cards. Well, they think, I have bottom pair and it might just be good. So they call down.

Well, he mostly has a jack. The times he doesn't, I can live with.

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dr

what do you think he thinks hero has? if you guessed overcards, you are correct!

fuji

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You read his mind? Jeez, if I could do that, I wouldn't be in this forum struggling to learn poker!

[Ignignokt]

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The panel have simply decided that "bad" means "will bet any piece of the board or nothing at all. Once you've made that decision, it's easy to spew bets in this hand.

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So what do you do - assume that a single donk means villain has a hand that beats anything but a miracle catch?

Unfortunately, this whole process is based on purposely withheld information. We're told villain is "bad," but not told whether that's bad-passive or bad-aggressive.

Here's my assumption, based on Fuji's flop call, as well as the fact that (I presume) there's a river: villain is laggro and could very well donk with air as long as an A or K didn't flop.

Does this change anything for you?

[btspider]

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What I want to know is, why bother learning about pot odds etc if I ignore them when it suits?

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b/c we might have the best hand. the best hand doesn't need outs.

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Dude, as I say, the fish always believe they might have the best hand. They call us down with middle pair to our great delight, and they believe they're winning. I am trying to not be a fish, not talk myself into joining them.

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sounds like you are overcorrecting and becoming too weak-tight then. when you play 10-max micro, you tend to lean on flushes/straights to drive your winnings. once you move up and/or try 6-max, you really have to play the more marginal situations since those sources start to dry up.

none of the decisions are easy one way or the other. its important to recognize its close rather than this results oriented thinking of you'd lose 1 SB while the looser TAG's here would have lost more.

[jrz1972]

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what do you think he thinks hero has? if you guessed overcards, you are correct!

fuji

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You read his mind? Jeez, if I could do that, I wouldn't be in this forum struggling to learn poker!

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It's not mind-reading. It's standard hand-reading. Even loose-passive fish will occasionally know enough to take shots at a pfr on a super-ragged flop.