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#1
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
reality check. pokerstove says you're looking at about 54% to win it (not knowing what suits your 6's are) if you have his range at JJ+,AKs,AKo.
even if you add the slightly more unlikely 33 - 55, you're still in the lead here. <low level player warning> i think you have enough equity in a shove of him folding to justify flipping coins. </low level player warning> |
#2
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
reality check. pokerstove says you're looking at about 54% to win it (not knowing what suits your 6's are) if you have his range at JJ+,AKs,AKo. even if you add the slightly more unlikely 33 - 55, you're still in the lead here. <low level player warning> i think you have enough equity in a shove of him folding to justify flipping coins. </low level player warning> [/ QUOTE ] Given villain's description (has not 3-bet pf ONCE prior), I would actually discount AK somewhat. I think its FAR more likely he has KK or AA here. As such, i'd c/c and c/f turn ui. |
#3
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
Against a spewer I think a donk is ok if you think he shoves a wheel draw
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#4
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
I'm 95% certain that villian either has JJ+ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] this makes calling preflop horrible. just check/shove now. he'll probably b/c his entire range and just getting it in here is better than any of the alternatives. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 39,600 games 0.016 secs 2,475,000 games/sec Board: 5c 4d 3h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h } Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } --- What was your plan if you didn't flop huge? |
#5
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm 95% certain that villian either has JJ+ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] this makes calling preflop horrible. just check/shove now. he'll probably b/c his entire range and just getting it in here is better than any of the alternatives. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 39,600 games 0.016 secs 2,475,000 games/sec Board: 5c 4d 3h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h } Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } --- What was your plan if you didn't flop huge? [/ QUOTE ] he was prob gonna c/f the flop? |
#6
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
What was your plan if you didn't flop huge? [/ QUOTE ] i think this is potentially a more interesting question. it's not a set, but it's a flop that puts your 6's in the lead. you calling preflop purely for set/stack value? anything else, i have to think, is a clear clear c/f, correct? |
#7
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What was your plan if you didn't flop huge? [/ QUOTE ] i think this is potentially a more interesting question. it's not a set, but it's a flop that puts your 6's in the lead. you calling preflop purely for set/stack value? anything else, i have to think, is a clear clear c/f, correct? [/ QUOTE ] given [ QUOTE ] I'm 95% certain that villian either has JJ+ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] then ya |
#8
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
obviously i'm calling only for set value but getting a flop like this was exactly part of the gameplan.
What do you guys think about his bet size? Don't you think he'd bet 800ish with AK instead a full pot? Bad players don't pot with AK. Speaking of his bet size... Here's a hand villian spewed. He only bet 1/2 pot with his 4's here... he raises button or co to 175, sb repops, he calls. He has 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Flop is 48Jccx (post is ~1200). sb checks, he bets 650, sb c/r's to 2100. He thinks and shoves for 1900 or so more. Sb calls with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and a pair of 4's scoops. (this is online btw, not live) |
#9
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
obviously i'm calling only for set value but getting a flop like this was exactly part of the gameplan. What do you guys think about his bet size? Don't you think he'd bet 800ish with AK instead a full pot? Bad players don't pot with AK. Speaking of his bet size... Here's a hand villian spewed. He only bet 1/2 pot with his 4's here... he raises button or co to 175, sb repops, he calls. He has 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Flop is 48Jccx (post is ~1200). sb checks, he bets 650, sb c/r's to 2100. He thinks and shoves for 1900 or so more. Sb calls with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and a pair of 4's scoops. (this is online btw, not live) [/ QUOTE ] OMG, I'm such a newb. The whole time I was thinking this is 10/20 NL. Considering stacks are 120 bbs, it's an easy check-shove. Even if we lower his ratio of AK to JJ+ from 2 out of 5 times to 1 out of 4 times [which is generous], this is still an easy check-shove. As for the example you just gave, it's different because in this one, he didn't have the lead on pre-flop so on the flop, he bets to "see where he is at." On the hand versus you, he has the lead and will be more likely go berserko. |
#10
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Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm 95% certain that villian either has JJ+ or AK. [/ QUOTE ] this makes calling preflop horrible. just check/shove now. he'll probably b/c his entire range and just getting it in here is better than any of the alternatives. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 39,600 games 0.016 secs 2,475,000 games/sec Board: 5c 4d 3h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h } Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } --- What was your plan if you didn't flop huge? [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it makes calling preflop exceptionally profitable. I can't believe this concept is lost on you. |
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