can this be profitable

[LoNeLyAcEs]

I have a general question, i recetly looked in my database for 0.15-0.30 FL FR how other proftable players w2ere playing and i was shocked [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

i have about 3k hands on them, this were 3 players:

- they were raising 22+,AXs,T9s+,ATo+,KJo+ from UTG
- overal PFR is about 14% and VIP was about 20% since they didn't adjust much to position
- they were all showing a good profit with 3bptb+/100

did i miss something, because i have a VIP of about ~17-18% and PFR of ~10%, is it possible to play profitable over the long run, as they do?

1) low limit players are usually not observant and they don't get how much and what you are raising
2) you keep playing good multiway hands also the top 20%
3) this way you keep the good tight players out of the hand unless they pick this up, but mostly they don't because they are busy 4-8 tabling or just starting out to learn getting a good TAG...

this are the reasons which could make it profitable or don't?

[Bona]

I wouldn't try to assess a players skill level by their win rate over 3k hands. Maybe over 30k

That said I would guess if these players play well i.e. tightly but aggressively post flop (AF>2) It is very possible to sustain a win rate of 3BB/100 at .15/.30.

[kerowo]

I'm away from PT DB but I'm pretty sure I had a win rate comparable to that over many many hands of .15/.30 and I'm low 20's vpip and a little over 10 pfr. There is a wide range of starting styles that can be profitable. 3K hands is way too small a sample size.

If you aren't sure of your vpip do some session reviews and see what other folks think of specific hands and specific situations and try and generalize from that to your overall game.

[Ulkis]

Maybe I should be starting to think starting hands too in the near future. I have concentrated on post flop play and have reduced spew, same time my results have gotten better: 9020 hands I now have 0.7BB/100. Other stats include 15.43/6/2, Won$WSF 38.02, WSD% 31.87, won$SD 60.16. So far I have been strictly using SSHE tight chart, and 15.43/6 look a bit low to me. So either that particular chart brings that kind of stats or a bit higher but results are not statistically significant.

I know I need to concentrate on how to act in the blinds and in the BTN and CO. SSHE recommends almost always raising if 1st to enter from late position and I don't do that yet. Doing that would increase my PFR%. Also I suspect I behave like a little girl in the blinds: Vol put$ SB 22.62, folded SB to steal 84.5, folded BB to steal 65.19, attn to steal blinds 13.31. But these stats are due to folling SSHE chart.

No real question here, but am I thinking on the right track here?

[LoNeLyAcEs]

sure 3k is nothing i know that, also i'm not asking for advice on my preflop play, i'm just curious whether this style could do better than SSH preflop charts at micro limits below 0.5-1 since there are a lot of tables with family pots and these are all hands that do well in family pots, besides that i'm not playing at this limit anymore i'm just curious [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BigBadBabar]

well in 3k hands you can play 80/60 and win a lot of money, or 22/15 or 16/8 and lose a lot. it's just too small to tell anything. i think the lag and lagtag styles do work well against nitty tags and lps to a lesser extent assuming you can play well postflop.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a general question, i recetly looked in my database for 0.15-0.30 FL FR how other proftable players w2ere playing and i was shocked [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

i have about 3k hands on them, this were 3 players:

- they were raising 22+,AXs,T9s+,ATo+,KJo+ from UTG
- overal PFR is about 14% and VIP was about 20% since they didn't adjust much to position
- they were all showing a good profit with 3bptb+/100

[/ QUOTE ]
I made 3.54 BB/100 over 10K hands at .50/1 playing 21/12. (Click just for the exchange at the end of the thread. It's LOLtacular.)

I still didn't raise virtually any of that range from UTG, though. Depending on table conditions for that level at your site, being crazyaggro like that may be profitable. But I'd venture to guess if you found a half-dozen more players with similar stats in your database, you'd find that some of them are probably losing over a 3K hand stretch.

[Gap23Razor]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a general question, i recetly looked in my database for 0.15-0.30 FL FR how other proftable players w2ere playing and i was shocked [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

i have about 3k hands on them, this were 3 players:

- they were raising 22+,AXs,T9s+,ATo+,KJo+ from UTG
- overal PFR is about 14% and VIP was about 20% since they didn't adjust much to position
- they were all showing a good profit with 3bptb+/100

did i miss something, because i have a VIP of about ~17-18% and PFR of ~10%, is it possible to play profitable over the long run, as they do?

1) low limit players are usually not observant and they don't get how much and what you are raising
2) you keep playing good multiway hands also the top 20%
3) this way you keep the good tight players out of the hand unless they pick this up, but mostly they don't because they are busy 4-8 tabling or just starting out to learn getting a good TAG...

this are the reasons which could make it profitable or don't?

[/ QUOTE ]

as your questions indicate, there may be some circumstances when playing with that strategy is good...in poker literature its always passed off as "playing much better before/after the flop" or "good table conditions", or playing against "fish"...etc...when authors are vague like that i suspect they are too lazy to elaborate or they don't know themselves...

finding out just what those circumstances are is valuable...

ask yourself some more questions, and when you get the answers, could you share them with us? (you may not want to)

there were 3 players winning with that range--just how many hands of data do you have on each of them?...where there any players losing with that range and that large a sample size? if so, how many? and did the winners play differ in any way? -- that is lots of folding when played back at, a lot of times no further raising or a significantly lower percentage of raising the flop/turn/etc...

when those players raised in early position, what did the rest of the table do? everyone call, everyone fold...or wast there 3 betting & capping? and finally, when 3 bet or capped, what did the 3 winners do? play on, or fold, and if they won, what did they win with?

i believe that some more sifting through the data may get you some valuable information about the winners, and the losers...you will determine what is going on with those 3 winners, and perhaps you can replicate it...a big job but i think you if you looked at the biggest winning & losing hands in your data plus a sample of the other hands to see may see a pattern of play without having to look at all 3K hands...

sure the sample is small and variance occurs, but some clustering around a true mean begins to show up around 64 trials i recall from my statistics classes and clusting increases as trials increase...and after a certain point more trials/sampling does not results in significantly more accurate estimates of the true mean...i don't know just how many hands of data one needs to get clusting enough that the true mean would be within + or - 3% of the sample's mean, but i suspect it would not be as large as many poker players claim... does anyone know of a thread on sampling size for poker?

anyway, sorry i did not give you the answers you want, but i would think if you indeed had 3 thousand hands of data on 3 players, there may indeed be a trend there rather than an abnormality.

[Xylocain]

Didn't read the whole thread, but then numbers you give will increase variance quite a bit. If you filter for everyone with these stats instead of just filter for the biggest winners you'll find an overrepresentation of big loosers as well over 3k hands.

Over 3k hands winning 5 extra 10-15BB pots will skyrocket your BB/100 and if you play 20/14 the chance of doing that will increase a lot (as well as the chance of spewing chips with 2:nd best hands OBV) compared to playing 14/7.