1/2: River raise or go for overcall?

shane88888 · #1 09-18-2007, 05:51 PM

UTG is bad. 70/2 over 180. My favorite fish.

SB is not bad. 21/13 and a winner over 160.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero ???

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

On the river, I'm about 95% certain I have UTG crushed. I also think I would have heard from the sb already if he had any interest in the hand.

jba · #2 09-18-2007, 06:02 PM

"I'm about 95% certain I have UTG crushed. "

you're like, way off there. sb doesn't have much to call with, definitely nothing that will call two. just call and hope sb has a king.

QuietEarner · #3 09-18-2007, 06:02 PM

hey shane was UTG no1sa, I may have been at the table with you, my name is Beaten_Battered. If it was him I would raise raise raise. Even if you fold SB, UTG is still going to call, or possibly raise if it's the previous name mentioned.

counterspell · #4 09-18-2007, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I'm about 95% certain I have UTG crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be much easier to give advice if you explained this read.

shane88888 · #5 09-18-2007, 07:52 PM

UTG wasn't no1sa.

This was my first table. I like to start with one, get warmed up some, and add more from there.

UTG was horrible. The game was just starting up. He was already on his second $20 reload after donking off 2-4 handed. There were more reloads to come.

I can't find any good hands in my db; his best ones came before I was dealt in. He was in spaz mode that some people go into when a game is three-handed, and had just taken a pretty horrible beat w/ JJ to a rivered two pair by 54o.

UTG will certainly call two. He's 70/2, losing 50BB/100 over 200 hands. He's not here to fold and he loves to call down obvious losers. One hand will tell you that he's not good.

My read came mostly from the rhythm of the hand. I thought QT would have c/r'd and the timing of the bet didn't say to me, "Eat it sucker, I just caught with J9." KJ should have done something on the turn w/ the 3-flush on board, as would have a set.

aceskay · #6 09-19-2007, 12:06 AM

I think that your read of being 95% certain you have UTG crushed is a little off. I mean, leading out on the river after playing passively the whole time usually means the river card hit their hand pretty good.

I don't like raising this river at all. I just call, hoping SB will call as well, and hope that UTG was being silly and didn't hit 2 pair or something weird.

Hi5 · #7 09-19-2007, 05:36 AM

Agreed. Check-call, check-call then donk the river... in some live games that's a grumble and muck for me.

bobhalford · #8 09-19-2007, 07:38 AM

Raising just gets you into trouble here because UTG says he can beat AK and all you have is one pair. I would be thinking that if I'm good here, I can just call and hopefully SB calls with a worse hand and I win the same # of bets as I would have had I raised the river with the best hand. But I don't see how you can be 95% sure you have UTG crushed. Plus, the SB may have caught with QT.

What happens when you are 3-bet. Are you going to fold? Avoid having to make these kinds of decisions by just calling.

JacksonTens · #9 09-19-2007, 08:44 AM

I'd kick it one time. Overcalls are for other places.

JT

shane88888 · #10 09-20-2007, 02:49 AM

SB was a very good player. If he raised, I had every intention of folding.

I didn't even consider what to do if UTG three-bet. This was one of those rare times when I was absolutely certain of my read.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Kh Qd (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ah As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.25 BB.