PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 7)

[PokerFink]

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines, meaning the division winners get the top four seeds. For a full explanation, please see this post. Also, when I list a team's NFL rank, it's based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.


</font>[/b]<font color="blue"> 1. DALLAS (6-1) </font><font color="red"> </font>: Who's been the best rusher so far this year? Adrian Peterson? Ronnie Brown? Westbrook? Addai? All good candidates, but it might just be Marion Barber. Barber is finally getting more carries than the far inferior Julius Jones, and he's having an outstanding season. 5.7ypc, 5 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, an excellent 53% success rate and he leads the league in DPAR. Even if you add in receiving, Barber is still ahead of everyone except the injured Ronnie Brown in total DPAR. <font color="purple"> NEXT: Bye.

</font><font color="blue"> 2. GREEN BAY (5-1) </font><font color="red"> </font>: In the early rankings, I wrote a lot about Aaron Kampman and the outstanding Green Bay front seven. While they have been good, they haven't been as good as I expected, ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and 13th in adjusted sack rate. The secondary has surprisingly outplayed the front seven. <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ Denver.

</font><font color="blue"> 3. TAMPA BAY (4-3) </font><font color="red"> </font>: Last week we wondered how Tampa Bay ranked so high in offensive DVOA despite a low output of yards and points. Well, part of it is pace, which should be a familiar idea to anyone who follows basketball. The Bucs have only 71 drives, a low total for a team who hasn't had their bye week. They rank 13th in yards per drive and 16th in points per drive, both of which are better than their traditional rankings. The second part of it is the lack of turnovers - Garcia still hasn't thrown a pick all season, although the Bucs do fumble a lot. That second part haunted them this week, as Garcia fumbled at the Detroit 37 yard line and then again at the 1 yard line. <font color="purple"> NEXT: vs. Jacksonville.

</font><font color="blue"> 4. SEATTLE (4-3) </font><font color="red"> </font>: Getting rid of Darrell Jackson was supposed to make room for DJ Hackett, but instead he caught one ball before getting hurt in week 1 and has been out since. Instead, it's been a big year for Bobby Engram, who's caught an outstanding 68% of his passes and is 8th among wide recievers in DPAR. <font color="purple"> NEXT: Bye.



</font><font color="blue"> 5. NEW YORK (5-2) </font><font color="red"> </font>: Great comment from the FOX broadcasters this week: Brandon Jacobs has the second most rushing yards in NFL history for a man his size. The leader? Daunte Culpepper. Jacobs had a huge game this week, ripping off 5-7 yards seemingly every time he touched the ball for a total of 107 on just 18 carries (5.9ypc). <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ Miami.

</font><font color="blue"> 6. WASHINGTON (4-2) </font><font color="red"> </font>: There were two bright spots this week for Washington. One was their free agent acquisition London Fletcher, who had 13 tackles, 2 pass defenses, an interception and a touchdown. The second was that they won, which is remarkable since they were outgained by more than 200 yards. <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ New England.



</font><font color="blue"> 7. DETROIT (4-2) </font><font color="red"> *UP 2* </font>: Hi, I'm Mike Martz. Hi, I'm a running game. Nice to meet you running game. Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett combined for 106 yards on 19 carries (5.6ypc) while Calvin Johnson added 32 more yards on his first NFL carry. Sprinkle in some luck (Detroit recovered all three fumbles in the game) and losses by Philly and Arizona, and the Lions roared back into playoff contention. <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ Chicago.

</font><font color="blue"> 8. CAROLINA (4-2) </font><font color="red"> *UP 2* </font>: Quite a productive bye week for the Panthers, who moved into first place in the NFC South and might get David Carr back this week. Although it's questionable whether that second one is actually a good thing. <font color="purple"> NEXT: vs. Indianapolis.

</font><font color="blue"> 9. ARIZONA (3-4) </font><font color="red"> *DOWN 2* </font>: Kurt Warner returned, and while his final numbers weren't too bad (27/41 - 282 - 2 - 2), he put the Cards in a huge hole early with two interceptions. Both picks were awful throws that went directly to Skins players, and both picks led directly to Washington touchdowns and a 14-0 lead. <font color="purple"> NEXT: Bye.

</font><font color="blue"> 10. CHICAGO (3-4) </font><font color="red"> *UP 2* </font>: 7 of 11 completions, 97 yards, 1 minute, 43 seconds, 1 touchdown. And with that drive, Brian Griese ends the Sexy Rexy era in Chicago. Oh, how I'll miss the dragon. <font color="purple"> NEXT: vs. Detroit.

</font><font color="blue"> 11. PHILADELPHIA (2-4) </font><font color="red"> *DOWN 3* </font>: They have a great offensive line (when Winston Justice isn't playing). They have a great running back. They have an excellent back-up running back. They have a good-enough defense. So what's the problem? Quarterbacking (erratic) and playcalling (downright stupid). As an Eagles fan, it pains me to say it, but McNabb and Reid (and probably Mornhinweg as well) are holding this team back right now. <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ Minnesota.

</font><font color="blue"> 12. MINNESOTA (2-4) </font><font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: To put it bluntly, Tavaris Jackson is not an NFL caliber quarterback. In college he only completed 55% of his passes, and he didn't even go to a D-I school. His quarterback rating this year is below 50. So is his completion percentage. His DPAR is significantly negative and ahead of only Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman and Josh McCown. And it's a shame, because with a solid defense and Adrian Peterson, the Vikings could be good. <font color="purple"> NEXT: vs. Philadelphia.

</font><font color="blue"> 13. NEW ORLEANS (2-4) </font><font color="red"> *UP 1* </font>: Who Dat That Runs For a Touchdown? It's Pierre Thomas! Ok, seriously, who the [censored] is Pierre Thomas? <font color="purple"> NEXT: @ San Francisco.

</font><font color="blue"> 14. SAN FRANCISCO (2-4) </font><font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: The Niners gained over 200 yards this week for - get this - just the second time all season (the other was in their week 3 loss to Pittsburgh). Even the anemic Bills offense has accomplished this four times, and they even had a game with over 300 yards. NFL average is about 330 yards per game, a number the Niners haven't gotten anywhere close to all year. <font color="purple"> NEXT: vs. New Orleans.

</font><font color="blue"> 15. ATLANTA (1-6) </font><font color="red"> </font>: Atlanta is already in full tanking mode, releasing veteran defensive tackle Grady Jackson this week. Jackson was the best player on their defensive line, and perhaps the best player on their entire team. When coach Bobby Petrino said, "It had nothing to do with anything but football," cornerback DeAngelo Hall responded, "They can probably cut me too... they need to cut all 53 of us." Hall might be an overrated punk, but he's right - his management is tanking the season and he knows it. <font color="purple"> NEXT: Bye.

</font><font color="blue"> 16. ST. LOUIS (0-7) </font><font color="red"> </font>: It took me a while, but I came up with something positive for the Rams. Punter Donnie Jones averaged 52.3 yards on his six punts this week, and has averaged 50.5 yards for the season, which ranks second in the NFL behind everyone's favorite roided punter Todd Sauerbrun. <font color="purple">[b] NEXT: vs. Cleveland.