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View Poll Results: Whats OPs hustle | |||
Is a pro UFC fighter | 8 | 11.94% | |
Is gay, will distract young with sexy gams | 21 | 31.34% | |
Has a KNIFE | 12 | 17.91% | |
young=already dead | 10 | 14.93% | |
is expert at ba-su tado martial art styleeee | 16 | 23.88% | |
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
Re: Billy Beane
According to rwperu, a "two decade prospector": <font color="#666666"> "For example, in rookie ball, the weight is something like 99% scouting reports, 1% stats. For a 23yo at AAA the weight is closer to 50/50, maybe even 60/40 in favor of stats."</font> Billy would say that, even for college players that aren't even too rookie ball yet, you don't need the scouts. They were drafting college kids based on stats with almost a complete disregard for scouting them. We're not talking highschool kids here. We're talking college+. And for that age range, we have Billy Beane at 95%+ stats and our poster at "99%" scouting. Edit: Ok just saw your post that you got in before this one, that makes a lot of sense. Edit2: I was also under the impression that it went college --> rookie ball --> minors, although some people will jump a level. I vaguely remember reading about Swisher and Brown playing in rookie ball before getting into the minors. And even still, rwperu was talking AAA not A ball, although I don't know how he would assign the %s at A. And regardless, there is obviously a big gap between his philosophies and that of Beane. |
#2
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
College+ kids don't go to rookie ball. They go to various A levels of ball, so what rwperu said is still valid.
EDIT: Well, good college kids don't go to rookie ball unless it's short-season. I would be willing to bet that Beane uses a lot more traditional scouting analysis than he has ever admitted. |
#3
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
Kyle,
Great stuff. I have a few questions though. 1. Do hitters change their swings to compensate for a weakness? Let's say a AA player can't hit a low inside curveball. How does that player adjust so that the pitchers don't constantly throw that pitch? Or is he basically never going to move up to AAA or the majors? 2. Mickey Mantle always used to say to hit for distance, you almost have to start swinging before the pitcher throws the ball. What does he mean by that? 3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting? |
#4
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
Great post
[ QUOTE ] ) That's not really the Moneyball idea, but I see why people get that feeling based on Lewis's book. I believe what a player has done (stats) is more important than what a player can do (tools), but too much reliance on stats will lead to the Blue Jays Syndrome - getting a ton of low-ceiling low-variance players in your farm system without any impact players. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
[ QUOTE ]
3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not kyleb, but IIRC I spotted a BP piece that noted a statistical significance with prospects and their weight with isolated power. So to a degree... yes? |
#6
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
[ QUOTE ]
1. Do hitters change their swings to compensate for a weakness? Let's say a AA player can't hit a low inside curveball. How does that player adjust so that the pitchers don't constantly throw that pitch? Or is he basically never going to move up to AAA or the majors? [/ QUOTE ] I suppose the best way I can answer this question is with an anecdote from Moneyball. Jason Giambi can't hit a fastball waist-high on the inside corner of the plate. However, if you miss by 2 inches, you get the favorite part of his hitting zone. Giambi also steps out and smashes those pitches foul, scaring the pitcher into believing he can hit that pitch. No hitter can hit all types of pitches in all zones of the plate. Fortunately enough, most pitchers aren't good enough to throw the weakness pitch every single time. [ QUOTE ] 2. Mickey Mantle always used to say to hit for distance, you almost have to start swinging before the pitcher throws the ball. What does he mean by that? [/ QUOTE ] He is right. He's basically saying you need to load the bat and follow the four steps of hitting that I outlined. The best power hitters exercise a negative bat load by bringing their hands back and loading their back shoulder as they perform the back leg push step, creating greater "separation." [ QUOTE ] 3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting? [/ QUOTE ] A-Rod has a lot of things going for him over Jeter: 1) He has way more LBM. 2) His swing is a classic power stroke that is nearly identical to Hank Aaron's. He generates insane backspin on his fly balls, giving them 20-30 feet more distance easily. 3) His swing has more loft in it. 4) And lastly, A-Rod is just a better hitter. |
#7
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
How do you go about purposefully generating more backspin?
Awesome, awesome thread, ldo. |
#8
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
The Clemente gif should get more love--it beautifully shows how great hitters generate an explosive weight transfer forward, creating power and then their front leg acts as the wall stopping the weight from keeping their body from continuing to move forward--you can see Clemente's back leg come up off the ground, every good hitter does this and this is b/c of the force moving forward and then the foot jabs back down b/c of the firm front leg acting as the wall. If he were to rotate his back leg into the ground and not get any weight transfer forward that leg wouldn't come up and his center of gravity would be driving straight downward which=bad bad bad.
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#9
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
awesome post
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#10
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Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting
[ QUOTE ]
How do you go about purposefully generating more backspin? [/ QUOTE ] Slicing "down" on the bottom half of the ball creates the backspin. These are the type of hits that send liners over the CFers head because he can't judge them. It's tough to do, and personally, I could only square up the ball. Once in a while get those good backspin liners. Usually on slicing, opposite field shots on low-ish away pitches. Kyle: About Bonds...hasn't he shortened up his swing since '01? That video of him is surprising. I could have sworn his swing was much more efficient than that. But his torque is incredible, especially considering he's got terrible knees, and the power he generates from his top-hand is second-to-none. I love his swing. Pujols' swing is also amazing, ldo. He's got those long legs and thick thighs which allows him to spread his feet wide, and just twist his hips to generate all his power. Pujols never looks like he's swinging hard because it's all in the legs/hips. That's why he can throw his bathead out on a low-and-away pitch and line it 395 feet into the right-center bleachers. So pretty. |
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