Waiting to raise the river

[Captain R]

Here's a hand from a 6/12 or 8/16 game a long time ago, but a recent thread in the mid-stakes SH forum jogged my memory.

I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on button. 5 limpers, I limp, SB completes, 8 players.

Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB bets, 3 callers, I raise, everyone calls back to my right who 3-bets. I cap it , BB calls, everyone folds back to my right who calls. 3 players.

Turn is 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB bets 0.5 BB and is all-in. My right thinks for a bit and looks like he's going to just call but then decides to complete it. I am 99% certain he has a set. I call.

The reason I call (instead of raising) is because 10 cards will fill him up, and 8 cards will put a 4th club out there on the river. Assuming if I raise and he calls me down, and if the 4th club comes on the turn he will check-call, I think this is more profitable than raising the turn.

If the board pairs the river, I can call him down and save 1 bet (vs. raising the turn).

So basically there are 8 scare cards for him where I only get one more bet out of him and there are 10 bad cards for me where he gets one more bet out of me. If I wait, I can see which way the river goes and either save 1 bet or get the same 2 more bets out of him by raising the river when the safe card comes.

Any flaws in the logic (assuming we pay each other off if the scare card comes and he pays me off if the scare card doesn't come)?

[Barry]

You're right, there's some scare cards for both of you, but there's also a lot of blanks.

When you call the turn, he's liable to check call the river, and check fold another club. Raise now, he has to call and probably will call a blank on the river.

[andyfox]

Let's assume your read is 100% correct and give him pocket 7s. Therefore, you should fold on the river when the board pairs. And let's say he's 100% certain you have a club and will thus fold when a club (except for the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) comes on the river.

If you raise now:
A) A club comes on the river and he will check-fold. You win 2 bets on the turn 7 times =+14 bets.

B) The board pairs the river. He bets the river and you fold. You lose 2 bets on the turn 10 times =-20 bets.

C) A blank comes on the river and he check-calls the river. You win 3 bets 27 times =+81 bets.

So you net out at +75 bets by raising.

If you just call now and raise a safe river:
A) A club comes on the river and he will check-fold. You win 1 bet 7 times on the turn =+7 bets

B) The board pairs the river and you will fold or check behind if he gets fancy. You lose 1 bet 10 times on the turn =-10 bets.

C) The blanks on the river and he will bet out and pay off your river raise. You win 3 bets 27 times =+81 bets.

So you net out at +78 bets by just calling the turn. Thus, given perfect play and perfect reads, it's slightly better to call now and raise the river. But he might 3-bet you on the turn or he might call you on the river if a club comes anyway or he might bet again on the river unimproved, perhaps putting you on A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx or somesuch.

[Barry]

[ QUOTE ]
C) The blanks on the river and he will bet out and pay off your river raise. You win 3 bets 27 times =+81 bets.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he bets the river and pays off. I think he checks a blank lots of times.

[bboy_]

need to raise this turn, isn't this obvious?

[Captain R]

Raising the river is based on 4 assumptions that must all be true for this to be the right play in my opinion:

- villain must have a set

- villain must be willing to bet a non-scare river

- villain must be willing to pay off a non-scare river when I raise.

- villain and I should be taking the same action if a scare card pops for us. I.e., if he would fold a 4-flush, I have to be willing to fold a paired river. Or if he is willing to pay off a 4-flush, I have to pay off a paired river. I think this assumption is the weakest, because I'm probably more willing to pay off a paired board than he is a 4-flush.

This is pretty much the only hand I can remember ever playing where I had this exact situation, but I thought it was interesting at the time.

[bboy_]

5. hero must have soul reading glasses and know that villain has a set here no less than 100%

[Captain R]

[ QUOTE ]
5. hero must have soul reading glasses and know that villain has a set here no less than 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

99%. Sometimes my opponents misread their hands. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyway, when this particular guy call-reraises flop he has either a set or a flush draw. When BB bets half a bet on the turn, villain thinks for a bit and initially is going to just call because he's afraid of the flush. When he changes his mind and completes, I know he has a set. A flush is obviously going to complete the bet and not have to debate. So he has a set.