Brian & Barry's prop bet

[seth14]

Considering this bet will only take place once is that not an edge?

[Cornell Fiji]

Seth,

Consider these two examples:

1) I flip a coin one hundred times. Every time it is heads I pay you $1, every time it is tails nothing happens.

2) I roll a 100 sided dice one time. If the dice lands on #7 I pay you $5,000. If the dice lands on any other number nothing happens.


The expected value in each situation is $50. The second situation has a higher variance (you will either win big or you will win small) where the first situation has less variance (your most likely payout will be close to your average payout) but there is no 'edge' in choosing one scenario over the other.

In this bet Brian has the coin flip and Barry has the dice but if the average of Sorel and Justin's skill is equal to that of Barry's skill then neither person would have an edge.

If you play poker it is very important that you understand this concept. It is also fairly important that you understand this concept just to get through life.

[seth14]

Agreed, EV is equal givin equal skill levels, however Brian has a greater chance of walking with cash.

[Turn Prophet]

A single big score by any party could really throw the numbers in this bet. I doubt Brian's edge is very significant, if he has an edge at all. Barry has had a lot of cashes the last few years including several wins, so don't count him out for a second.

[rakemeplz]

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Agreed, EV is equal givin equal skill levels, however Brian has a greater chance of walking with cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure reducing variance was probably not a large concern of Mr.Greenstein or Mr.Townsend.

[KnifeParty11]

I think brian has the best of this in the sense that Sorel and ZJ have a bigger chance to score big (top3) then BG... just because of the playing styles

[DLizzle]

anyone interested in a similar prop bet? For much less of a percentage of the winnings, but instead of such a small amount of players we each take 10-20 players with alternates so that we have the same number of players in the tournament if some don't play. I'd want the online side. I'm willing to discuss details through PM, or maybe this will spark a thread. One problem I can see arising with this is deciding on who is an online/live pro. For instance, is shaniac a live pro or online pro?

[8Adam8]

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I think brian has the best of this in the sense that Sorel and ZJ are both better tournament players than barry

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[Turn Prophet]

In fairness though, how many more live tournaments has Barry made the top 3 in vs. Imperium and ZJ? I think that was kinda the point of Barry's argument. Sorel is pretty new to the live scene, but does Justin have more than 3 or 4 top 3 finishes in live tournies?

Not saying Barry is hands down a better player, but I think people are overestimating the difference in skill levels, real or perceived.

[8Adam8]

[ QUOTE ]
In fairness though, how many more live tournaments has Barry made the top 3 in vs. Imperium and ZJ? I think that was kinda the point of Barry's argument. Sorel is pretty new to the live scene, but does Justin have more than 3 or 4 top 3 finishes in live tournies?

Not saying Barry is hands down a better player, but I think people are overestimating the difference in skill levels, real or perceived.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad to see that you have alerted us to the fact we are blatantly overlooking:

Barry has more top 3 finishes than either of them!

Clearly, we should ignore this fact.