NFL Week 9 player props thread

[silentbob]

In advance of the Patriots vs. Colts armageddon, the books have put up many of their props early. I see many soft lines for this game, and have bet on several already. The chances of all of these hitting aren't high, but I can only hope for the best.

Randy Moss under 1.5 touchdowns scored at -110 for 2 units (VIP/BetGameDay). Based on his 2007 performance thus far, he's 50/50 covering this line. Of course, the Patriots have not faced an offense as good as the Colts (i.e., one that keeps Brady off the field) or a defense that shuts down #1 WRs as well (Colts are the best in DVOA, and a top 5 pass defense overall). Plus, the Patriots have too many other players who can score (and have scored) TDs. One TD for Moss seems most likely. I'd say the chances of two or more are 25 to 30 percent at best.

Joseph Addai -2 fantasy points vs. Laurence Maroney at -135 for 1 unit (Bodog). I have Addai scoring about 19 or 20, and Maroney at 12 or 13. Addai will see about as many carries and get as many rushing yards. He'll cover based on PPR and receiving yards. Even if the Patriots jump to a huge lead, I think Addai will rack up points on dump passes.

Peyton Manning under 24.5 pass completions at +110 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). The line is 25.5/-120 at Bodog. I refuse to pay 30 cents for 1 completion, especially when Brady could easily keep the Colts offense off the field. My projections suggest a line closer to 22 or 23.

That's all for the time being, especially given the uncertain status of Marvin Harrison. I also don't really like any of Bodog's other fantasy scoring lines except for one dog that I'll wait on to see if things improve before Sunday afternoon.

YTD: 20-16, +1.57 units