200NL- AA on a scary board vs. FGators

[Imrahil]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $359.25
BB: $185.10
Hero (UTG): $216.20
MP: $271.90
CO: $216.00
BTN: $372.35

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is FGators26 and is 20/15/2.4 over 8.6k hands.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, MP calls $8.00, CO folds, BTN calls $8.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($27) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $18.00</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $60.00</font>, Hero?

Should have bet like $24 on the flop my bad.

I think QQ here is a definite fold. KK is a probable fold. But not sure about AA because overcards + FD combos for FGators are really only FDs. But I know he's known for being nitty although his stats don't suggest that. I know I'm never greatly ahead here as he doesn't have QQ. At best I'm like 65% to win I believe.

[Austiger]

I'd give it up. I don't like your chances if the money gets in.

[fees]

folding seems fine, shoving is ok too if he always plays combodraws like this

[keikiwai]

since he's OTB his chances of having a sooted connector is bettter than if he were in the blinds imo, so i shove

[joeblack]

[ QUOTE ]
20/15/2.4 over 8.6k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that this is against FGators? I don't think so, these are run of a mill stats.

I shove here.

[Isura]

This is a fold against him.

[orange]

I fold vs. FG

[Isura]

I'm trying to put him on a range that we can call against. We are about 32% against two pairs, straight, 87/88, or sets. He has to have stuff like KJ:spade and maybe even like QQ here some of the time for this to be a clear shove. Also, fgators hardly bluffs in this spot.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
since he's OTB his chances of having a sooted connector is bettter than if he were in the blinds imo, so i shove

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, we are not in great shape even against that range. He has to have air like 25% of the time here to make continuing profitable.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20/15/2.4 over 8.6k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that this is against FGators? I don't think so, these are run of a mill stats.

I shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it will draw more people into the discussion if it is FG and I'd hoped he'd respond as well.