200NL: river decision

[donkeykong2]

i think you call now because you dont want it to be true that you re beat.

[StarRain]

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I think this is a fold. This pot sized pot bet doesn't seem to be a bluff. If he has something something like 33-77 he wouldnt bet this much or might even check the river because he also has showdown value. However, the only reason you are in this spot is because you didn't bet the turn.

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I actually think this PSB is more likely to be a bluff. Doesn't he want to get value out of his monster hands? Only AK/AA could snap call this bet, correct?

[badkins6]

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I think this is a fold. This pot sized pot bet doesn't seem to be a bluff. If he has something something like 33-77 he wouldnt bet this much or might even check the river because he also has showdown value. However, the only reason you are in this spot is because you didn't bet the turn.

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I actually think this PSB is more likely to be a bluff. Doesn't he want to get value out of his monster hands? Only AK/AA could snap call this bet, correct?

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Ok, say he has soething like 33-77, TT, or 8x i doubt he wants to turn his hand into a bluff by betting this much because he has showdown value. Say he has a monster like A2, or 88 he IS getting plenty of value from hands like ours or any K we might have. And if he does have air, i don't think he's bluffing often enough to make this call profitable, so props to him.

[AMT]

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well if you get c/r, youre losing. if you get called and he bets the river, youre losing. so this way if he does have like 8x or something weird like 77, he might call, whereas by checking the turn, its much harder to get value out of his weaker made hands on the river especially when scare cards fall

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I think it's much easier to get value out of worse hands by checking the turn. u seem to advocate betting to get info more than anything else.

I think checking turn >>> betting. although he has agro stats I'd fold the river when he bets pot.

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no, hes saying that you want him to keep calling with his worse hands, and theres no real downside to betting because we can react confidently to the decisions we might face if we are beat.

[FreakDaddy]

Why did you check the turn, and what was your plan?

With an aggressive villian, I like the turn check, as you'll induce a lot of river bluffs, and you an control the size of the pot. Against aggressive villians, when a 'scare' card hits on the turn, you don't want to be blown off your hand to a CR if it has showdown value.

If villian isn't as aggressive, I think a turn bet is slightly better. As played, it's close, but I'd call the river.

[Josem]

call, call, call

he could have almost any two cards.

you folks are missing the rediculously huge aggression factor of 6

anyone with VPIP of 41 and an aggression factor of 6 is rediculously aggressive post flop with bluffs and other stuff that simply isn't strong enough to bet.

i'd happily call the river with any 8 here or better against this villain.

[Alobar]

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call, call, call

he could have almost any two cards.

you folks are missing the rediculously huge aggression factor of 6

anyone with VPIP of 41 and an aggression factor of 6 is rediculously aggressive post flop with bluffs and other stuff that simply isn't strong enough to bet.

i'd happily call the river with any 8 here or better against this villain.

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I agree with the call. But his AF is pretty meaningless after only 61 hands

[Josem]

It's the best indication we have of villains' aggressiveness.

Sure, you wouldn't want to conduct heart surgery on the reliability of the number, but it has got to be persuasive (if not binding) in coming to a decision.

The figure is calculated by (bet/raise)/(call). 6:1, even over a small sample, is still well above average - especially when combined with a VPIP of 41

it's fine to have an AF of 6 if you're a nit only playing premium hands - but the combination of the VPIP of 41 and the high aggression factor puts a huge amount of crap into villain's range.

[Alobar]

I still think its pretty meaningless at least in the terms of basing this decision on.


Hes only seen 25 flops 8 of them he was the PFR on. Thats no where near enough to get any sort of reliable AF on. Sure his true AF could be 6, but it could also be like 1, we just dont know enough.

[a breath of air]

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $243.80
UTG: $197.15
MP: $376.90
a breath of air (CO): $200
BTN: $143.50
SB: $202

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to a breath of air (CO)
UTG calls $2, MP folds, <font color="red">a breath of air raises to $10</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $8

Flop: ($23) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">a breath of air bets $15</font>, UTG calls $15

Turn: ($53) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, a breath of air checks

River: ($53) 3 (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $53</font>, a breath of air calls $53

Results: $159 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG showed K Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Twos) and WON $156 (+$78 NET)
a breath of air mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Twos) and LOST (-$78 NET)