Rate This "Edge"

[George Rice]

If you knew the exposed hands would continue then you should win better than 1/35 times, as your chances of winning after making the final table go from about 15% to 90%. So divide 2000 by 6 just by that. You also have a huge advantage short handed before the final table before goint to 1, 2 and/or three tables. Divide by three just for that. Getting to that point must be at least three times as likely, so divide by three again. 6x3x3=54, 2000/54=37, so I estimate your chances of winning to be better than 1 in 35.

If you didn't know it would continue then you would get involved with other players way more often.

Maybe you win at the final table about 1/3 times, move on short handed twice as likely, get there twice as likely. 2000/8=250. So about 1/250 times.

These are all just estimates, but these numbers are mainly driven by the huge advantage short-handed.

[leaponthis]

[ QUOTE ]
EV is $25,000

[/ QUOTE ]


o.K. given your skill level using ~ 4% of possible information ( your two cards) you have an EV of 25k. Now you are able to see 2 more cards (~4% more). I assume that your skill level stays the same, that is that you don't become a better player because you have more information. Then it would appear that if you have an EV of 25k with 4% information then your EV would double to 50K when you have 8% of the information available to you and your opponents still must use their 4% info against you. There are a few issues that would have an impact on your EV. Number one is that in tournaments the payouts are structured top heavy and you EV is probably not linear with relation to your edge. I imagine that in a tournament as your edge goes up your EV increases at a greater rate because your liklihood of finishing higher in the money goes up. So if the buy-in is 10k and you have a 25k EV then you probably average finishing in the third or fourth payout level. So with a 2000 person field the initial money is approximately 15k to number 200-175 players. 25k probably makes you a 120 to 140 finisher. Doubling your information should atleast allow you to improve your finish from 120-140 to 60-70. My guess is that 60-70 finishers get about 100k. So double the information is probably worth 4 times the EV.

An issue that might affect the EV downward is the fact that you must do everything possible to keep the player that is showing his cards in the tournament. To do that you need to give up some EV. If this is not an issue then my guess is that EV quadruples.

leaponthis

[Rotting]

Is the "player on your right" a single guy named Reuben, for example, that exposes his cards to you as some weird habit of his, or is there some reflective component of your watch that allows you to see ANY opponent on your right's cards (regardless of what table or seat you sit at throughout the tournament)?

[gwhiz_612]

If my odds are 1/2000 out of 5000 entrants I must already be in the top 40%,thus my EV is $25000=$10000/.40 before the edge.If I break it down to my single table I go from a 4/10 chance to possibly a 6/10 or 60%. I dont think it would double because you dont know what the other players are holding. The benefits would come in calculating odds in each hand because instead of using 47 on the flop you could use 45 being that you knew 2 more cards out of the deck thats a 4% edge right there. I'm sure there is a pure mathematical solution to this question but there would have to be parameters set up. Otherwise there would be various ways to manipulate this advantage. You could make or not make plays so that the player to your right would actually accumulate chips from other players and then have them dumped to you. You would be playing your hands and assisting him (unknowingly) with his hands. At the final table of course your odds would begin increase at a greater rate.

Some things to consider would be...
Would the edge increase with the skill of the player to your right?
Would the edge be more advantageous if you were deep stacked or short stacked? What about his stack?
Would the edge change with the image of the player? Your image?

[Gobgogbog]

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew the exposed hands would continue then you should win better than 1/35 times, as your chances of winning after making the final table go from about 15% to 90%. So divide 2000 by 6 just by that. You also have a huge advantage short handed before the final table before goint to 1, 2 and/or three tables. Divide by three just for that. Getting to that point must be at least three times as likely, so divide by three again. 6x3x3=54, 2000/54=37, so I estimate your chances of winning to be better than 1 in 35.

If you didn't know it would continue then you would get involved with other players way more often.

Maybe you win at the final table about 1/3 times, move on short handed twice as likely, get there twice as likely. 2000/8=250. So about 1/250 times.

These are all just estimates, but these numbers are mainly driven by the huge advantage short-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the way I was thinking of going about the problem, but I didn't feel like estimating numbers. If anyone's up for it, I think it would be worthwhile to discuss the numbers used in this way of attacking the problem.

[mikewvp]

I'm thinking that if I can see the guy's hand to my right every single hand, all the way down to HU, I should win the tournament close to 25% of the time. Taking very few risks and trying to play hands HU with whoever is on my right, or cinch hands. I probably wouldn't commit all of my chips preflop in any instance, unless it was AA vs my opponent's AK and I knew that, or something similar with around 90% probability of winning.

If I didn't think I would continue to see my opponent's cards, I think my chances of winning would decrease quite a bit, but I couldn't even imagine what it would be with any sort of accuracy.

[StregaChess]

I guess my chances of winning are like 97% or something crazy. The blinds don't really effect me now as I'm a stealing machine, because I'm no longer stealing I KNOW.
If I can't be blinded out I can pick my places and destroy the player to the right, who might not be there for long.
Piece of cake....
On second thought my chances would be under 97%, I still could not fully optimize the advantage as I only have 360 days of poker experience give or take 30 days. However a world class player like David should be 97% or above.

Regarding the second part about not know if it would end, I'd like to pass. How could I wait if I thought it was going to end? Not sure.... hot to factor that in, but it's got to go down at least 10 to 20%

[Richas]

Looking at it where you know the additional info will be available throughout first -I think that the edge would be significant and would be more significant still short handed but that understanding when it is most and least valuable is important. I think we need to look at the edge in different hand scenarios then look at the effect on the tournament as a whole.

For a lot of hands (75%?) it would make relatively little difference as whilst I would know of two dead cards they will have been folded before I act. This information alone is valuable as it applies to all hands I play and could lead me to not play some hands (suited connectors or small pp if my outs have been used) but it is a small additional edge say 1-5% assuming the information is used well. The value of the information will vary from hand to hand and importantly it is an edge against all other players at the table. Sometimes though it will make no difference as I would have folded anyway.

For the 25% or so of hands the player on my right plays I have much more information, this information will sometimes allow me to play more hands but on other occasions will lead me not to play. I would assume that whilst I would play more hands to the flop less than half of the time the player on my right plays I would also choose to act post flop, after all he is playing his better hands and I would want to play post flop against his hands with one that is +ev without the need to bluff (he controls the response to the bluff) so depending how tight they are I would only be involved against a player whose cards I know 15% or so of hands overall, possibly less and certainly less post flop.

In a proportion of hands against the player on my right I will also be playing against another player with unknown cards. Two different scenarios in terms of edge. Without another player my edge is huge, I could of course still lose the hand but I would always lose the minimum commensurate with building a +ev pot and always make good +ev decisions. The edge here is probably +80% with another player involved my edge is much less, say + 20%.

Now for the strategy. Clearly I would want to be involved against the opponent on my right HU quite frequently as with the large edge it should be very +ev but I’m by no means certain this would be the only scenario I would play as it would happen too infrequently (and some of those they win anyway) so sometimes I would need to play him with other players involved too where my edge is still significant. Here we have a greater risk of going bust so playing relative small ball and avoiding all ins to wait for the sure thing makes sense. Again this may not be often enough so I would probably have to play some other pots vs unknown hands but I could afford to choose only the most +ev situations with low risk (against much smaller stacks or avoiding going all in).

Overall this advantage should make a big difference. It should allow me to build up relatively early allowing low risk play overall with at least some edge in all hands I play. I could decline slightly +ev scenarios in favour of much higher +ev scenarios. Essentially so long as the hands against a known opponent came along frequently enough I should be able to maintain an average or better stack throughout the tournament, playing patiently, avoiding all in confrontations with others and until post river (or his drawing dead) vs the player on my right.

If I had a 1 in 2000 chance without this advantage I’d estimate that given a sensible strategy I would be better than evens - if nobody else adjusted their play. Playing so tight weak though I suspect they would and it may not be possible to avoid risk to significant portions of my stack throughout the tournament so maybe 1 in 20 chance of winning? It’s also possible that with a perfect strategy you could pretty much guarantee the win but I’m not sure quite what that is or how you would prove it.

Not knowing the informational advantage will continue – you’d probably seize most opportunities to play the opponent on your right, almost regardless of your cards - often for a raise to prevent others being involved. You would mostly be entering the hands with dog cards and looking to bust him so quite often you would be forced to fold on later streets, you would need to accept the risk of getting involved as a dog but your informational advantage should outweigh this over several hands. The big difference though is that you would be much more willing to accept a +ev situation that risked your tournament life that you might decline knowing the continuing informational advantage. If he had 9 outs and pushed (covering you) on the turn without knowing that you would continue to see his cards you would call as it is highly +ev, if you knew the free information would continue you could choose to decline knowing further +ev situations would arise without the risk of going out and losing your future edge.

In all then I’d say that not knowing the information will continue makes a huge difference. Indeed it may increase the likelihood of going out early with nothing, for the very best players this affect alone might even lower your overall expectation even though the individual hand was highly +ev.

[Kimbell175113]

Does the question mean you have magical knowledge, or that you can physically see the cards? What if you're in seat one, do you see anyone's cards? What if you're head-up and villain is across the table? etc.

Either way, what I have to add is that the difference is huge between seeing it every time and knowing it will continue and just hoping it will continue. If you KNOW you'll always see the cards, you'll be able to play very strangely to take advantage of the information and avoid gambles, even quite good ones, in pots against the other players.

[SplawnDarts]

Hmm, obviously you're going to go to some length to get into hands with the guy next to you (ideally, only him) anytime you have 2 live cards.

I believe, if in fact you know the situation isn't going to go away (for example, when the final table gets short) or be noticed, that your probability of winning is well over 10%. At the very least, as a lower bound, the insurmountable advantage it would give you heads up if you make it there with a reasonable stack nearly doubles your equity.

The effect might well be analogous to Unger's great reads (resulting in a 1 in 3 win rate in major tournaments).

I believe the effect will get stronger

a) the tighter your table is preflop
b) the looser the guy to your right is preflop
c) the less likely he is to jam the pot
d) the tighter he is post-flop