English Premier League picks

dennison · #1 08-10-2007, 10:16 AM

System involves heavy quantitative and qualitative analysis, predominately the latter. We're mainly betting lower leagues but I will be posting EPL unless there's an interest elsewhere.

Pretty light card week one:

Saturday:
Portsmouth ML +140 (2)
Everton -0.75 -102
Tottenham -0.25 +100
Liverpool -0.5 +104

Sunday:
Birmingham City +1.75 -112
Manchester United -1.5 -104 (2)

Good luck!

New001 · #2 08-10-2007, 03:25 PM

As I said in the previous EPL thread, I'm on Pompey ML and am considering Everton ML (I'd take the spread if I could). I'd lean Spurs in that game, but I don't like the Liverpool play. Good luck on day one.

TheOffice · #3 08-10-2007, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We're mainly betting lower leagues but I will be posting EPL unless there's an interest elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be all for lower leagues and less EPL. Strange?

p002geo · #4 08-10-2007, 08:05 PM

Is Hanneman going to play for sure?

dennison · #5 08-11-2007, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is Hanneman going to play for sure?

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Who is Hanneman?

New001 · #6 08-11-2007, 12:25 AM

I can only imagine he means Hahnemann for Reading. Not sure how much that matters, if at all.

New001 · #7 08-11-2007, 12:34 AM

I suppose these will go in here then.

I'm on Pompey +145, Rovers +190, Everton -145, and Birmingham +1400. Next on the list would probably be Arsenal -300 against a very weak Fulham team but I'd want a little more before playing it myself. Again, these aren't system plays, those will take a couple weeks at best. Thoughts on any of these?

YTD Premiership: 0-0-0, +0.00u.

dennison · #8 08-11-2007, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I can only imagine he means Hahnemann for Reading. Not sure how much that matters, if at all.

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I've estimated Hahnemann as 70% to play but as you suspected, it makes little to no difference at this stage of the season.

dennison · #9 08-11-2007, 05:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose these will go in here then.

I'm on Pompey +145, Rovers +190, Everton -145, and Birmingham +1400. Next on the list would probably be Arsenal -300 against a very weak Fulham team but I'd want a little more before playing it myself. Again, these aren't system plays, those will take a couple weeks at best. Thoughts on any of these?

YTD Premiership: 0-0-0, +0.00u.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your Pompey and Everton picks (obviously, given I'm on the same side). I don't love the Blackburn pick because I see this end a draw too often, though I lean a play at pk for +110.

I can't really see any value in the Birmingham pick. While Chelsea underwhelmed in pre-season and the Community Shield, they did manage to hold an impressive Man Utd side, and even without Terry, Bridge and Ballack, they are nothing if not efficient. Birmingham are going to be out of their depth in this division, and are not going to be the first team to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the league. I've estimated at Drogba at 30% and he alone is worth almost half a goal. I've taken the spread at +1.75, but as for value on Birmingham at +1400, it's too early to quantify. Gun to my head, 2-1 prediction.

sharkstevie · #10 08-11-2007, 06:42 AM

Just done a $10 accumulator, all favourites though

Today,
West Ham 1/1
Everton 4/6
Liverpool 10/11
Celtic 4/9 (Scottish League)

Tomorrow,
Man utd(2/9), Chelsea(1/5) and Arsenal(3/10) all thrown in also, they all seem like certainties to me

The Portsmouth game is too tough to call for me, away from home on the opening day against a newly promoted team is gonna be a tough game for sure IMO

West Ham i think will beat Wigan at Upton Park after spending plenty of money in the summer i think even money is a great price for them