NL100 Nuts on the come

[Spete]

[ QUOTE ]
If you would have made a real bet on the river you probably would have gotten his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, this is what I'm wondering, too. Do you mean overbet 2x pot or something like 30$ and let him raise the rest?

[Casper05]

The pot is $42- bet $25 and watch him raise his flush (and price himself into your push) or call with his Kx. Much more positive EV than the line you took. MUCH.

[Irishman07]

I kinda like a 1/2 pot bet here. He'll still call if he had the straight, possibly still with a good one pair hand, and he most likely will still be raising his small flush. And he'll have a much harder time folding to your 3bet push.

[Spete]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold a baby flush against a solid player, what do you beat? that would be one sick value raise w/ a set. Exploitable? haha no, can't imagine trying to get an average player (even a solid one) to fold a flush esp since the board ahsn't paired.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obv not your average Joe, but now that I have this read on this villain, can I push the naked Ad here next time?

[Spete]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is $42- bet $25 and watch him raise his flush (and price himself into your push) or call with his Kx. Much more positive EV than the line you took. MUCH.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ty, I think you're right that your line gets more value from his range in general. I was too focused on my gut feeling that he had the flush draw also, which is stupid because the flush draw is in the minority in his range.

[jbird]

all i know is "Nuts on the come" made me giggle.

[Spete]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, it looks like you hit the nuts on teh river, with the block bet on the turn, then the small value bet on teh river and 3bet push.

[/ QUOTE ]
You, sir, are an adept hand reader.

[eigenvalue]

You missed to stack him because:

(a) Bet $16 on the turn. A blocking bet here gives your hand away.
(b) As played, bet 1/2 pot on the river.

Your weak bets on these two streets suck.