2/4 NFD deep vs scary c/r

[chucky]

[ QUOTE ]
twodimes is a simulator not a stove.

try http://www.propokertools.com/

u can write QQ**,66** for all QQxx and 66xx hands etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it wasnt a stove, but I wanted the guy to go find it himself. It is annoying when people post question in the forum that are basic to answer with google.

[iggymcfly]

That stove range isn't very good at all. Basically, if villain plays KJxx and KTxx with spades even occasionally here, it changes the equities dramatically as we have a huge edge over those hands and there represented much more heavily among villain's possible hands than KJT hands are. Also, we're missing some basic KJT hands like KKJT and KJTT.

With the range listed, villain has a made hand probably > 90% of the time whereas IRL, I'd expect it to be somewhere between 50% and 70%.

[plzbenice]

like i said u cant write in every possible combo since u run out of space.


make your own range instead then and post it.
now i took away AAxx because we have an A and took away 66 as well, hell prob play most QQxx but just very good 66xx(like doublepairs or 3straights)
so its QQ and a lot of draws, even some weaker ones.




Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 46.15% 276,118 1,544
QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,AKsQTs,KJT* 53.85% 322,338 1,544

[plzbenice]

chaning the KJTx without spades for 66xx changs things considerably though:

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: AdQs6s
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJsJc8c 36.15% 216,609 525
QQ**,KsJTs*,KsJT9s,KJTs8s,KJTs9s,AKsQTs,66** 63.85% 382,866 525

[iggymcfly]

If we all agree that a call's bad, a shove and a fold are breakeven at 41.6% equity. Considering the range with 46% equity looks more correct than the range with 36% equity and we do get a fold at least occasionally, I think a shove's the play, but it's close enough that I couldn't fault a fold too much.

[blumpkin]

[ QUOTE ]
If we all agree that a call's bad, a shove and a fold are breakeven at 41.6% equity. Considering the range with 46% equity looks more correct than the range with 36% equity and we do get a fold at least occasionally, I think a shove's the play, but it's close enough that I couldn't fault a fold too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your argument, but the deciding factors for me were that (1) I thought I had close to zero fold equity and (2) I thought, due to him possibly not being a regular, that he might "overplay" his made hands ignoring the fact that I could easily have the nuts. So, I ended up folding. I still think it's very very close, and I sort of wish I had pushed so that I would have seen his hand (and hopefully suck out).