*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[kyro]

It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[kyro]

Anyone have opinions on Dal/NYG 49.0?

Dallas is averaging 33+ per game.
Giants averaging 25 per game.

They both are giving up around the average.

The only thing that is making me wary with this line is DVOA has Dallas as 4th in weighted defense, and the Giants at 8th. I must have missed the memo that these two teams were powerhouses on the OTHER side of the ball as well.

Any opinions?

[TooTallT]

[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[Machmood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

im an idiot, so your saying the Smart money is on......

[kyro]

Help me understand what that means, "where the Pinny lean is in this game". Are you saying that despite money coming in on Detroit heavily, the line is staying the same, which means Pinny is quite content to have the money in on Detroit and Arizona is the right side?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

im an idiot, so your saying the Smart money is on......

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. terrible minds think alike.

[siccjay]

I guess the square side of me is taking over for this game. I like DET +1 a lot. The over also sounds really good. The only thing I am worried about is Kitna getting sacked A LOT in this one.

[TooTallT]

The public is on Detroit (79% on Wagerline on Det +1). If there's no resistance to the public money flowing in on one side, the books (usually) move their lines to compensate. See CHI/OAK for evidence of this public-heavy line moving.

Since the line isn't moving it means one of these things:

1) The books are balanced by non-public money from somewhere else (sharps betting large amounts).
2) The books are actively taking a position on Arizona because they think it's the right side.
3) Wagerline's stats are crap

The top two possibilities above make me think that the books believe Arizona is the right side here, although obviously nothing's guaranteed. Even if I'm right and this is a good play, it will lose 45-46% of the time.

EDIT: On top of this, Pinny shades their line even further to +105/-113, inviting Detroit money even more. Again, Pinny is wrong sometimes, but I like going with these pro-Pinny/anti-public plays.

[Machmood]

The line has moved as much as 1.5, you dont see this as beeing enuff for the amount of action on DET. On my book 94 percent of the action on on DET and the line moved from+1.5 to even now

[Machmood]

also, correct me if im wrong but dont people concider the early money to be the "smart" money....if this is true then on my book within 12 hours it went from Det +1.5 to even, meaning the smart money took det, the line moved now its holding, am i 100 percent off here, i prob am so correct me please