Gauging Ron Paul Support

[iron81]

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Do you realize how popular libertarianism is becoming among college students and young people? They are disgusted with Bush and realize that the Democrats are a hopeless party of failure. When the election cycle hits its peak Paul is going to really make an impact nationwide.

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Is this based on anything besides anecdotal evidence? I'm sure less than 5% of college students would identify themselves as libertarian or equivalent.

[owsley]

Look at the situation the two parties are in, it is much different that in previous elections. 8 years of bush have made the republicans pretty damn hard to support, and the democrats running are all marshmellows. As much as I dislike the viewpoint personally, libertarianism is becoming "cool" to support. I guess I don't understand the big picture of 20th century of american politics as well as you guys, what other libertarian failures would you compare Paul to? During the debates Paul is going to come off very well compared to everyone else because of young people's current attitudes. It's the same reason Obama got so much early support. How good a candidate he is was irrelevent, he got a lot of support because of people's dissatisfaction with bush. Paul will get a similar bonus. I have no illusions about what his chances are because of how our political and media structure is set up to prevent people like him from succeeding, but he is going to make big gains relative to where he is not and where other libertarians have been in the past.

[JackWhite]

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Look at the situation the two parties are in, it is much different that in previous elections. 8 years of bush have made the republicans pretty damn hard to support, and the democrats running are all marshmellows. As much as I dislike the viewpoint personally, libertarianism is becoming "cool" to support. I guess I don't understand the big picture of 20th century of american politics as well as you guys, what other libertarian failures would you compare Paul to? During the debates Paul is going to come off very well compared to everyone else because of young people's current attitudes. It's the same reason Obama got so much early support. How good a candidate he is was irrelevent, he got a lot of support because of people's dissatisfaction with bush. Paul will get a similar bonus. I have no illusions about what his chances are because of how our political and media structure is set up to prevent people like him from succeeding, but he is going to make big gains relative to where he is not and where other libertarians have been in the past.

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IMO, the best chance for a major libertarian boost in public perception is a Shwarzenegger type candidate. Libertarian beliefs generally don't get much attention from the mainstream media. They need somebody very famous who will command media attention to advance this cause. In a perfect world this wouldn't be necessary. However, The way the MSM works, somebody like Ron Paul is not going to get much attention unless he pulls a shocker in an early primary/caucus state.

[NickMPK]

This election is really no different than any of the others in terms of libertarian prospects. Just because the two parties are disliked (and political parties are generally disliked anyway) isn't going to drive people to support a philosophy that they think is much worse than two mediocre alternatives.

Ron Paul never polls higher than 2% in any national polling, and this is probably about where he will stay. And I guarantee than the Green Party candidate will poll much higher among college students than whoever the actual Libertarian Party puts up in the general election.

[owsley]

You keep saying that this election cycle isn't going to be any different than the the last handful and that Paul won't do any better than the last group of libertarian prospects, but what previous libertarian candidates are you comparing him to?

[BCPVP]

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Look at the situation the two parties are in, it is much different that in previous elections. 8 years of bush have made the republicans pretty damn hard to support, and the democrats running are all marshmellows. As much as I dislike the viewpoint personally, libertarianism is becoming "cool" to support. I guess I don't understand the big picture of 20th century of american politics as well as you guys, what other libertarian failures would you compare Paul to? During the debates Paul is going to come off very well compared to everyone else because of young people's current attitudes. It's the same reason Obama got so much early support. How good a candidate he is was irrelevent, he got a lot of support because of people's dissatisfaction with bush. Paul will get a similar bonus. I have no illusions about what his chances are because of how our political and media structure is set up to prevent people like him from succeeding, but he is going to make big gains relative to where he is not and where other libertarians have been in the past.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, the best chance for a major libertarian boost in public perception is a Shwarzenegger type candidate. Libertarian beliefs generally don't get much attention from the mainstream media. They need somebody very famous who will command media attention to advance this cause. In a perfect world this wouldn't be necessary. However, The way the MSM works, somebody like Ron Paul is not going to get much attention unless he pulls a shocker in an early primary/caucus state.

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[NickMPK]

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You keep saying that this election cycle isn't going to be any different than the the last handful and that Paul won't do any better than the last group of libertarian prospects, but what previous libertarian candidates are you comparing him to?

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All of them. Including Paul 20 years ago.

[owsley]

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You keep saying that this election cycle isn't going to be any different than the the last handful and that Paul won't do any better than the last group of libertarian prospects, but what previous libertarian candidates are you comparing him to?

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All of them. Including Paul 20 years ago.

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Who was the last equivalent version of Paul to fail? Apparently there are tons of similar failures so it should be easy to list one.

[Bobbo539]

I voted yes-no-no. I am more of a Conservative than a libertarian, and would prefer Romney or Giuliani over Paul, but Paul over any democrat.

[irunnotgood]

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I voted yes-no-no. I am more of a Conservative than a libertarian, and would prefer Romney or Giuliani over Paul, but Paul over any democrat.

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Of course the two stalwarts of conservatism Giuliani and Romney.