$16 Stars: AJ facing all in from 2p2 regular w/ even big stacks

[BeattysLuck]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t3460)
Hero (t3625)
UTG (t2025)
MP (t1540)
CO (t345)
Button (t2505)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A.
4 folds</font>, SB raises to t3435</font>, Hero ???

I dont remember villians name but he is a regular and im pretty positive hes a 2p2 member. I dont think he knows I am though. So with that said, I know he is pushing extremely wide here because he believes I can only call with the top hands say JJ+, and maybe AQs+. So I can call, risk being itm, and pwn the bubble if i win orrr fold and cruise into the money b/c a majority of the table is at &lt;5bbs. What would you do in this situation?

[STALLOWN3D]

If he is a good regular then he should be pushing a wide range here. If you have SNGPT or the like just plug it in there and play with the ranges.

I don't see how this wouldn't be a call tho.

[jesse8888]

My first thought is that this has to be a call. You're not even on the bubble if you assume the 1bb stack is dead already. I think you've got his range crushed badly enough to call here.

After plugging it manually into an ICM calculator (I do that from time to time), your stack is worth a bit over %50 more if you double up than it is right now. You need to be something like 65% against his range to call this.

What range is worse than 65% against AJo? Not much actually....so this might still be a fold.

[jesse8888]

AJo is 63.5% against ATC.

[Oubliette]

Ingame i call everytime against a known reg who doesnt know me. We push wide here, so i think you have to call wide, and its not like your stack is invincible now, its 200-400.

[STALLOWN3D]

[ QUOTE ]

After plugging it manually into an ICM calculator (I do that from time to time), your stack is worth a bit over %50 more if you double up than it is right now. You need to be something like 65% against his range to call this.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why 65%? I understand and agree on his equity going up just over 50% if he wins here, but I don't how to get him needing to be 65% here.

Edit: Nvm. I figured it out.

[kyro]

It's neutral EV if he's pushing 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

I'm not quite sure he's pushing too much more than that.

[kyro]

Also, if I don't know someone is good, I'm not going to be pushing crap into you, because I don't trust you're not smart enough to fold what I need you to fold. That should weigh into your decision some.

[STALLOWN3D]

[ QUOTE ]
It's neutral EV if he's pushing 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

I'm not quite sure he's pushing too much more than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he's pushing this tight in a BvB spot? If he is a solid reg he should be pushing a lot wider than that.

[sippin_criss]

callcallcallcallcall.