bet this river !?

[Realyn]

if i bluff this river with my missed jt flushdraw(just an example! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) someone allways calls with 22 ... so i guess, easy valuebet! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Nah seriously, i think as long as your pair is higher than the second flop pair und ur opponent played c/c flop c/c turn it is allways a value bet.

[thepizzlefosho]

against this villain I b/f (although I'm tempted to b/c) because when LAGs taking passive postflop lines it usually is with weak SDable hands and not draws, so you can v-bet against a ton of low pkts and 8s 6s and even maybe some 4s.

if this was a loose passive or tight passive I would be much more tempted to c/c and try to pick off bluffing diamonds or straight draws.

[DeathDonkey]

You gave some stats but most important to me is went to SD. If its 45+ I definitely bet. 40+ gray area. Less than 40 I check.

-DeathDonkey

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
You gave some stats but most important to me is went to SD. If its 45+ I definitely bet. 40+ gray area. Less than 40 I check.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

WTSD takes so long to converge that I've stopped looking at it. I bet this for sure for reasons mentioned above.

[milesdyson]

45+ wtsd is HUGE. if 40-45 is gray then you really feel unsure of this bet. i don't think this is close except against tight passive tags. i played one of those today. played exactly this type of hand. i checked JJ on the river on another overcard and his K8 scooped on K425Q. the difference here is this guy is 46/21 so

1. he likely gets more action in general and is likely to showdown lighter.
2. there are more cards on this board that hit his range vs. the board in my hand.

i don't think it's close and would bet, as nina said, without even thinking about looking at his wtsd.

[jstill]

people really ck call down K8 on that board miles? wow what was preflop action?

id bet here vs anyone, I think even KJ KT the worst better hands in his range should cr the flop (anyone disagree?). Too much of everyones range now a days is non Ks when they play it passive, this is a worse pair way more than 50% of the time in my experience esp vs this type of player, the Q hit no draws and most everyone pays off a pair after this line, and I think u get cr'd like never here so even bet call is better than ck

[milesdyson]

ok so it was a BIT different.

i was actually recording a video while i played this hand. too bad i couldn't fine tune camstudio because the audio was trash so i just deleted the video.

Absolute Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP calls, CO folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.60 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.80 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP folds.

River: (6.80 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.80 BB

Results:
Hero mucks Js, Jc.
BB shows 8d, Kd (One pair, kings).

[DeathDonkey]

See I just don't know what you guys are up against. Every time I see a 45/20ish guy preflop I assume his went to SD is like 55 which I see all the time. Hell I'm ~42% and all the fish go to showdown more than me.

-DeathDonkey

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
See I just don't know what you guys are up against. Every time I see a 45/20ish guy preflop I assume his went to SD is like 55 which I see all the time. Hell I'm ~42% and all the fish go to showdown more than me.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean because you play at higher limits? this is actually a bit confusing to me: why is it that the optimal wtsd seems to be higher at higher limits?

[waffle]

I agree, bet. If he raises I probably think "folding is best here" while moving my mouse over the call button and clicking. This is why I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]