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#1
11-08-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
[ QUOTE ]
Given the villain's high AF, and the fact that you are now heads-up, the pot, I would have actually called the turn with your TPGK. [/ QUOTE ] These two factors are irrelevant to my hand's relative strength vs. the villains 3betting range. I don't think postflop AF has anything to do with PF looseness (although i'm not 100% certain) . They are both seperate stats... Haupt_234 
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#2
11-08-2006, 05:47 PM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
I don't see why you called the flop if you were just going to fold the turn. What card were you waiting on exactly? You missed the flop and maybe have 3 outs, just leave it alone here.
From his stats you'd have to figure you were going to pay all the way to showdown unless he completely whiffed. Check/fold the flop, especially if you aren't going to continue on even if you get cards that pair your hand.
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#3
11-08-2006, 06:04 PM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
[ QUOTE ]
These two factors are irrelevant to my hand's relative strength vs. the villains 3betting range. I don't think postflop AF has anything to do with PF looseness (although i'm not 100% certain) . They are both seperate stats... [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I agree stats tell us very little about a players PF 3-betting range. I think PFR stats can only give us a small indication. However, in this hand I think his AF can indicate that he might not be as strong as he appears when he fires two contiuation bets postflop against a small field when checked to...
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#5
11-08-2006, 06:34 PM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
Is KQ in his range? It would probably be in mine depending. A smaller PP such as 88 or 99 might also be in the realm of remote possibility if he thinks he's got a read. I'm not sure if this matters, but it might be worth pondering.
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#6
11-08-2006, 06:32 PM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
I think calling with the attention of check/folding the river should be considered. If we assume we have 4 clean out villain only needs to check behind on the river a little more than 2% with a worse hand for it to be profitable.
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#7
11-10-2006, 02:42 AM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
[ QUOTE ]
I think calling with the attention of check/folding the river should be considered. If we assume we have 4 clean out villain only needs to check behind on the river a little more than 2% with a worse hand for it to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I like this philosophy. However, I don't think most players would bet with 88-TT here, board is just way too scary. Fold is actually not bad, I think I would have called but I doubt it is very high +EV. I do think it is + only because the pot is a little bit big.
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#9
11-10-2006, 03:06 AM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a great fold. I wouldn't mind a fold on the flop either seeing that it is 2 toned. Disagree? [/ QUOTE ] Hero easily has the implied odds on the gutshot even if we assume the limper has a flush draw.
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#10
11-09-2006, 12:15 AM
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Re: 5/10 FT Mehhh....?
A few things...
1) If MP1 is fish and villain knows this, his 3-bet range may be wider knowing your raising range will be wider. 2) Villain bet the flop and was called in both places. He should be figuring gutshot at the minimum. 3) That is a really high agg factor. 4. Calling the turn bet thinking you may get a check behind on the river. Can't see that happening against this opponent. If he happens to hold a hand hero beats, villain is likely firing again on the river. So you get about 9:2 to call down. I think it is a bit close, but the fold is okay with me.
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