Bubble of a FTP Freeroll - When is folding here good?

Ontario_Tory · #1 06-22-2007, 11:38 AM

This was in one of the FTP Fantasy Poker freerolls - top 1,000 people for each event qualified for the freeroll - $2000 total prize pool. In this one, 380 people played, top 90 ITM. 90th gets $8, 45th gets $10, $360 for 1st place.

Villain in this hand has been pushing liberally, so his range is HUGE. I've also seen him fold for an extra $300 (!!!) two hands prior. So I'm sure I'm ahead.

Not worried about spoiling things by saying the result of the hand - I pushed, I was ahead, he sucked out, I finished 91st.

My question is this: What size would my stack have to be for folding into the money the right play? I figured I'm playing to win, this is a great opportunity to double up - let's push. If I lose, so be it.

That being said, after the hand I started thinking about it. Top 90 get paid, but spots 18 - 90 are paid basically the same amount ~$9. Even doubling up, I would have been behind the average stack by a fair bit, with a long way to go before 'significant' money. So was my stack small enough to justify folding into the money?

The hand:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t120/t240
(Ante: t25)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t5075
UTG+1: t18795
CO: t2615
Button: t21005
SB: t15335
Hero: t1665

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, Button raises to t990, SB folds, Hero raises all-in t1640, Button calls t650 (pot was t2900).

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t3550, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t3550)

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t3550, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t3550)

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t3550, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t3550)

Results:
Final pot: t3550
Button showed Qs 3c
Hero showed Ac Jc

Neku · #2 06-22-2007, 11:48 AM

With your M around 3, I think you need a bigger stack here to fold.

Unless... there's players out there with *really* small stacks, like half of yours or 1/3d of yours (which is quite possible with 90 players still out). If it's only a matter of minutes or seconds before anyone busts out before you, I could fold this.

Also, Harrington advises us to get our money in first (first in vigorish). It's safer than a call, because you can still steal blinds then, which buys you more precious time. But any second now, registrar will come by to tell you that this is an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (as we've been discussing AJ hands all day)

JavaNut · #3 06-22-2007, 12:06 PM

One of your problems is that you can not scare button, in this situation he will call with 72o if he is HU with you.

By winning this hand you will be sure of $8, but still a major dog to win anything really higher. But at most you will be 75-25 to win the hand, haven't you already got better odds of getting in the money by folding?

In this situation you need to look at how many really small stacks, like yours, there are out there, you might be 90-95% sure or even better of getting in the money by folding.

On the other hand with more than 10 still to go out to get in the money, or if you are just in the money, just shove, shove, shove.

Ontario_Tory · #4 06-22-2007, 12:15 PM

to be clear:

1) A fold would get me into the money. We were hand for hand, so I knew for sure a fold would be $8 for me.

2) The hand played out exactly as I wanted it to - I figured one of two things would happen: a) I'd get him to fold, or b) he'd call, but I'd be ahead. He just happened to suckout on me.

So my question isn't so much "how could I have ensured I would have made the money", it's more "Does the payout structure / size of my stack make this tourney similar to a sat - folding anything but AA / KK would be the right move, because doubling up still leaves me with a big uphill battle for 'real' money, but elimination = $0"

zatacka · #5 06-22-2007, 05:28 PM

Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

seke2 · #6 06-22-2007, 05:52 PM

Sounds like a weird payout structure. If 90th = $8 and 19th = $9 then in some weird way it might be more $EV to fold because winning this pot certainly would not guarantee you would make the final 2 tables where all the money is. But to make that big money, you're going to need a big stack eventually. And here, if you think you have an equity edge AND you think you might actually have some FE here, it's probably too +cEV to make up for whatever $EV implications are at play here.

MJBuddy · #7 06-22-2007, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.

So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

FalloutGirl · #8 06-22-2007, 07:03 PM

i like what mjbuddy said. if it were me i would definately push all in.

zatacka · #9 06-22-2007, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.

So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is -EV in the long run, it doesnt matter for me how big % of my bankroll it is. Poker is all about making good decisions and i wouldnt forgive myself for folding here since im way ahead of his range.

so [censored] that 20k and gogogoo for the million

woohoo88 · #10 06-22-2007, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well played, playing for just coming itm is a losing play in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

In real tournaments where itm scales and you have a buy-in...yes.

If I was in a freeroll and 90th place paid out 20k and my current BR was 500 dollars, I'd fold that [censored] all day.

So the question is definately how that money compares to your BR, imo. Doubtful that it's a huge boost, obviously, but it's free money with no risk and no ROI involvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is -EV in the long run, it doesnt matter for me how big % of my bankroll it is. Poker is all about making good decisions and i wouldnt forgive myself for folding here since im way ahead of his range.

so [censored] that 20k and gogogoo for the million

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wanted to point out that folding is always neutral EV.