***yankees official offseason thread*****

[rwperu34]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

[rwperu34]

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it will only be a big deal if Arod ages, and you are stuck with 5 more years of a .300/.280/.260 eqa hitter due another $150m

b/c at that point, there will be much better options

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Even then it won't be a big deal. By that time the Yankees payroll will be $300MM.

[fmxda]

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he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years.

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I would argue that Mike Lowell's decline years are now.

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he choices aren't a) bring back Arod or b) trade Joba and Hughes for Cabrera. you could sign Mike Lowell, who is a decent .300 eqa guy and + defender, for 4 years at 50% of Arod money. he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years. or, you don't need to sign a big $ FA at all. you can decide that its in your best long terms interest to go with neither Arod nor Cabrera nor Lowell, and just bring back an average guys like Betemit to be your 3b. this won't win you more games next year, but it does leave you a whole lot more flexible for next year/s.

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A rebuilding year works if there are pieces in place for a championship run in the future. Since the Yankees don't have such players, particularly on the offensive side, eventually you will be spending cash or trading somewhere down the line. I think it is fair to boil down the decision to sign A-Rod down alternatives found in free agency or trades.

Thus my argument is that the A-Rod signing is one of the best actions the Yankees can do to keep themselves competitive year after year. Yes, I realize that years 6-10, when A-Rod is 38+, he will be terribly overpaid and the Yankees would certainly be better off without him, in a vacuum.

Let's exclude any trades for a second to simplify. I'm sorta presuming, given the constraints of who is going to be up for free agency (i.e. teams lock up their good young stars), that for the next 3-4 years alone, there is no possible better production the Yankees could get with that ~27 million or whatever A-Rod is getting paid. Lowell (@ mid-teen millions / year) + whatever pitching/bats you can get for another $10-15M is not going to match A-Rod IMO. And then Lowell's contract expires in 4 years, then you are subject to the vagaries of the free agency once again, most likely overpaying a veteran in a long contract if it's a seller's market. You may argue that these 4 years give the Yankees time to roll the dice with the farm system and develop a phenom, but this is just as possible with A-Rod manning 3rd base.

With regard to trades, I may be overestimating the price the Yankees' will need to pay to get a trade done for an All-Star; I think it is a similar situation that you're not getting good yearly EV in the next 10 years. I haven't thought this out though, so I might be totally wrong.

Also, the true cost of A-Rod's contract is likely overstated, as it probably makes a lot of sense financially to have a sure-fire HoF'er and perennial MVP candidate on your team in your new park and probably setting records and drawing massive attention down the road.

[fmxda]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

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These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[rwperu34]

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it's not necessarily the best strategy to go full out in an attempt to win the WS every year

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For the Yankees it is.

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you need to consider the affect that dead money and dead roster spots eventually have on your ability to build a team.


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This has very little effect on the Yankees. They can have $50MM in "dead" money and still have more "live" money to spend than any other team.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Lowell (@ mid-teen millions / year) + whatever pitching/bats you can get for another $10-15M is not going to match A-Rod IMO.

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it might if you sign Barry Bonds

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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it's not necessarily the best strategy to go full out in an attempt to win the WS every year

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For the Yankees it is.

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you need to consider the affect that dead money and dead roster spots eventually have on your ability to build a team.


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This has very little effect on the Yankees. They can have $50MM in "dead" money and still have more "live" money to spend than any other team.

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agreed this affect the Yankees far less than any other team. but it still needs to be part of the equation

[Karak567]

the yankees aren't going to sign barry bonds guys

[CharlieDontSurf]

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ok, this ended up really ugly and maybe not so useful, but I did it, so I'm going to post it!

this is the top 10 hitters ever (by .eqa) + Arod, by age. I wanted to show the aging affect visually, but maybe there is too much data to show visually.

there are old guys here, but also modern players like Frank Thomas, Bonds, Manny, and McGwire.

Ruth has peaks and valleys, but at 36 he hits a wall and tumbles. Williams is very impressive; maintaining his performance until the end. Bonds is a gigantic outlier, as his late 30's are way better than any earlier period. The Big Hurt had a historically great mid 20's, but he settled into a .310 guy - I think he represents the best case scenario for Arod as a hitter. Manny has been very close to Arod as a hitter; whether or not his fall this year was a downyear or aging remains to be seen. Gehrig is a unique case. Mantle was a good hitter at 36, but that was his last. McGwire was great right until 37, then he was gone (again, special case).

I guess the point is that Arod is behind all of these guys as a hitter. Bonds, Ruth, Williams and Mcgwire all improved in their mid 30's and a couple others didn't decline too poorly, but to keep performing at an elite level into your mid 30's is extremely rare. it's much more likely that your hit a wall at some point and go away.



before this year PECOTA projected him to be a .307 eqa hitter by age 33. if he is playing 1b by then, or shortly thereafter, that would make him about the 7th best 1b in the league (defense aside). he's be a good player, but position adjustment considered, no longer a great one. but he still might be the highest paid player in the league.

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kbz your argument here stinks. i think the real question is, is a-rod's decline offset by the rise of young talent the yankees will be able to retain in future seasons by not having to trade for a miguel cabrera or similar player? and i think the answer to that almost certainly is yes. you're not considering alternatives - you're merely saying 'well 6 years down the road 1b average hitter etc. etc.', without considering the ramifications of giving up top prospects.

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the trouble is actually that YOU are only considering next year, and not the long term health of the franchise. it's not necessarily the best strategy to go full out in an attempt to win the WS every year - you need to consider the affect that dead money and dead roster spots eventually have on your ability to build a team.

the choices aren't a) bring back Arod or b) trade Joba and Hughes for Cabrera. you could sign Mike Lowell, who is a decent .300 eqa guy and + defender, for 4 years at 50% of Arod money. he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years. or, you don't need to sign a big $ FA at all. you can decide that its in your best long terms interest to go with neither Arod nor Cabrera nor Lowell, and just bring back an average guys like Betemit to be your 3b. this won't win you more games next year, but it does leave you a whole lot more flexible for next year/s.

the trouble, as Nate says, is that fans are probably not willing to tolerate a rebuilding year, even though this may be the best long term decision. there is a big money team with depth & youth in your own division, and the Indians will be very bit as good as next year as well. even with Arod back the Yankees are the 3rd best team in the AL.

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1) You cannot sign a top free agent in his 30's for just a few years. The player rightfully gets to leverage his good next few years for the worse production at the end of his career.

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but there is no rule saying you need to sign a free agent in his 30's. there are other options

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KBZ I get what your trying to say but over the next 3 years the Yanks lose like 40-50 million in salary they carried this year and past.

They add a bit more with Mo, Posada, Arod but still lose a ton esp when Damon/Abreu/Matsui are gone.

Now if you consider that the Yanks have Hughes, Kennedy, Wang, Chamberlain, Horne, Sanchez, etc in the pipeline then the Yanks won't need to spend [censored] on their pitching.
They have several prospects to fill positions in the field..if they keep building their farm system like they have been they can afford to carry a Arod, a Posada, a Mo in their last couple of decline years. Even if Arod gets hurt in year 5 and can never play again...the Yanks are fine.
They've eaten that much over the past 4 years with a [censored] farm system and have still spent like crazy. Add in the new stadium and the Yanks can take the hit if it goes bad in order to stay strong over the next 4-5 years

[Karak567]

very strong rumors from a couple different sources that a-rod will sign for 280 10 years with incentives to make it 325