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  #11  
Old 11-27-2007, 10:30 PM
PokrLikeItsProse PokrLikeItsProse is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

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not Cbetting is 0EV.

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No, folding is worth 0. Checking does not mean you lose the pot. Comparing a continuation bet with folding will strongly bias your analysis in favor of making continuation bets, even when they are less profitable than the alternatives.

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Folding is deffinatly worth 0EV, however checking is a different story. Checking could actually be close to -EV.

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Checking can never have a lower EV than folding. The strategy of checking with plans of not putting in any future bets (that is, checking behind on future streets if checked to and folding to any bet) dominates the strategy of folding, so one should obviously never just fold if checked to on the flop. Folding has an EV of O. Checking with plans of not putting in any future bets into the pot must be worth at least 0. In fact, it is worth slightly more because you sometimes win when the pot is checked down all the way.
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  #12  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:44 AM
Nutstylin Nutstylin is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

I think the answer lies in your opponents strategy/tendencies. For the sake of simplicity lets assume that you have opened from the field for a raise and called only by the BB.

Assume now that on the flop you employ the strategy of betting all your "made hands" (1 pair or better including all PPs), and checking the rest (high card only hands).
Against the ultimate calling station (who's only action is to call), you will show a profit, and you can continue to value bet the turn and river based on the strength of your hand.
Against the rock who only gives further action when he hits hard, you may show a small profit due to your position in later betting rounds, but you lose a HEAP of value by not claiming pots when both of you miss.
Against the good player who is able to adjust to your strategy, you will get crushed. If you divide your range into two distinct groups with your flop action, you give the thinking opponent the chance to play perfectly vs your ranges. This turns what should be a +ev situation into a huge -ev situation.

So i think the bottom line here is: Before you consider employing any grossly unbalanced strategy, first make sure your opponents have no idea how to play poker!
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  #13  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:26 PM
Bone_Daddy Bone_Daddy is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

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Against the ultimate calling station

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hey, thats me.
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  #14  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:36 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

There is no easy answer to this since a lot of your play will depend on how your opponent plays. And even if you are heads up against an opponent who has no observational skills at all, the other 7 players may be intently watching you.

Only c-betting with something against a good opponent is going to be unprofitable very quickly.

And keep this in mind. Even against a calling station that will call every single c-bet you make, there are times, especially if you are raising narrow, that you will both have air but you will have better air.

In holdem, "never" is usually always a bad path to go down.
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  #15  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:22 PM
djadi1 djadi1 is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

The question is, what do you define as air.

As one example, you have AsKd raise it preflop buttom calls, flop comes 2h 2d 3s.

You contbet he folds.

Did you made your contbet with air?
Definitely not, cause you had the best hand relatively sure in this scenario.

We can conclude, that everytime you make a contbet and the other guy folds you just gain the amount of the pot you wouldnt get if you just check and let him in the pot.

The conclusion of it is, that it is definitely better to contbet with air if you are absolute behind his whole range, but have enough equity, that he will fold a lot of hands, against which you are already behind.
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  #16  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:32 AM
TWCReborn TWCReborn is offline
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Default Re: Never C-betting with air.

Continuation bets on flops that you do not connect on make sense because you showed strength preflop. If you fail to bet post-flop, you have abruptly changed your behavior. I think most good players bet, regardless of whether they hit or miss, 60-90% of the time they bet preflop. If they only hit a pair or better 33% of the time, then the extra 27%-57% comes from pocket pairs, ace high/king high bets, semi-bluffs, and bluffs. The percentage is probably even higher because people don't bet all the time when they connected on a flop. Trying to come up with some rule of when and exactly how much to c-bet in a vaccuum doesn't make sense. Good players take image, their opponent's aggressiveness, board texture, the number of players in the pot, the likelihood of someone slowplaying, opponent's card ranges etc. into consideration before betting out. In general, I think most players bet 60-90% of the total times they bet preflop on average.
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