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  #11  
Old 11-23-2007, 05:29 PM
fslexcduck fslexcduck is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

maybe it's the cash game mentality in me talking but i absolutely hate betting that flop. for exactly this reason.

sure it's gross if a club comes off after you check, but you have position, so you can evaluate the situation. and you don't have to lose a ton of chips with a 4 flush on board when you don't have it. that being said, waiting for a blank can ensure you get your money in really good.

oh and now i'd fold. a hand like KcQ or something like that is killing you, he could already have 2 pr, straight or flush... you're basically praying to be a coinflip and you're drawing dead when you're not
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  #12  
Old 11-23-2007, 07:16 PM
Bakes Bakes is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.
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  #13  
Old 11-23-2007, 07:33 PM
TWCReborn TWCReborn is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

Like Todd Terry said, the best you can hope for is probably a flush draw (unless you're pretty sure he is bluffing and not semi-bluffing--which in this case might be impossibly hard to do). You could be looking at a set, a made flush, low-to-top pair and a king-high or ace-high flush draw, two overcards and a flush draw (small favorite), a straight and a flush draw (less likely because if he hits a random club, all he has is a jack or queen high flush draw), or an overpair with or without the flush draw. There is also a possibility that he is exploiting your smaller stack size by representing the above hands on a stone-cold bluff, but this is going to be improbable enough that folding will almost always be the better play here.

A lot of good tournament players will put a smaller stack all in with a flush draw if they put that player on top pair, and almost certainly with two overcards and a high flush draw. They don't want to gamble with 9-15 outters but they know that you want to gamble less than they do given that for you, it's for your tournament life. They also know that in the unlikelihood that you do call them, that they will still have a good shot at knocking you out and taking your entire stack. And in the case that they lose, they will still have a ton of chips. Even if you put him on exactly 2 little clubs, you will be 9 outs to a knock out short of the money. The best chip-ev play (calling against a 9 outter) is not the best tournament equity play as any MTT or SNG player will tell you.

Thus I agree with the cash game player-- I wouldn't bet the flop (which gives away information, that you are value betting a pair). In this tournament setting, even more than in a cash game setting, you're too vulnerable as a shorter stack to a flush draw all-in (because of the pressure of busting). I would check the flop and overbet the turn, enough to give him doubts as to if you have the flush or not, but at the same time protecting your top pair on the turn from a flush draw. The downside is that if a club hits on the turn, your hand is probably worthless against aggressive players who would bluff or bet the nut flush the same way.
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  #14  
Old 11-23-2007, 08:15 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

[ QUOTE ]
no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking is correct in 100% of poker games.

as played, though, I think you have to fold. the problem here is that even the hands he is defending from the draw all beat us.
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  #15  
Old 11-23-2007, 08:49 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

Just as this board is very dangerous to us, it's very dangerous to Jon unless he's caught a big piece of it. The c-bet Zugwat made is +cEV unless Jon's jamming here with over 64.5% of his preflop calling range, which is totally impossible. I'd be surprised if it's over 10%.

Are there other lines here that are more +cEV? I doubt it, but if they exist, this is an end of the tournament spot where cEV and $EV diverge. The c-bet is an absolutely riskless, significantly +cEV play. Playing this marginal hand against someone who has you outchipped 4:1 to showdown where 1/2 the deck is going to make your hand look very weak is very dangerous, and I just wouldn't do it. Additionally, checking behind on the flop with marginal to good hands heads up is a metagame mistake against a good player IMO.
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  #16  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:06 AM
dw2006 dw2006 is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

It's even worse to check without a plan to call or fold, because he is shoving this flop a good percentage of the time. He is almost never calling. bet/reevaluate seems like the worst line possible.
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  #17  
Old 11-24-2007, 01:02 AM
ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

I check flop a lot with these stacks, i think this is definitely a check most of the time

as played I think call is a huge spew
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  #18  
Old 11-24-2007, 03:00 AM
PhatPots PhatPots is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

I think a lot of people are saying to check the flop mostly because they see he has check-raised you. But if he had folded everyone would be saying it was standard.

As played, I think I fold.
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  #19  
Old 11-24-2007, 03:19 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

[ QUOTE ]
i think i like checking the flop, we're almost betting as a bluff really, and while it sucks if a club comes on the turn, he's not gonna be folding big clubs on the flop - and won't be paying off 3 barrels w/ < TP ten kicker, so i dont think we really lose anything by giving the free card. (overcards pairing is the suck, but meh)

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read the rest of the replies but I check here like almost every time (makes mental note in-case I'm playing vs. you fools) for like all these reasons


I honestly hate hate hate hate betting flops like this when he can be shoving soooo many things and like, we have to fold to a shove, so why bet anything remotely decent that might have showdown value?

Depending on opponents of course, if it's someone that is really passive that I know will just call with a naked club or w/e then I may bet, but very very rarely because I love making call downs here (and you should too, free chips)
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  #20  
Old 11-24-2007, 03:46 AM
ike ike is offline
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Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

Seems like its pretty much consensus that betting here sucks, and I agree.
Do we bet call AT no club? I think I do.
Do we bet/call JcTx? QcTx? KcTx? I think my line here is QcTx and I check it back with JcTx.
Thoughts?

PS: I've played a good bit with Jon but I don't think these decisions depend very much on the fact that he's the villain. I play it the same vs any competent, aggressive player.
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