PLO8 tourney 3 handed decision

[Truthiness24]

What do you do with this?

The PF raise was admittedly junky, but I was able to stay in this thing by exploiting my opponents' overly tight play short. I'd like to hear your take on the PF move as well.

But I'm more concerned with the flop. If I fold, I have 33k chips left & I can't compete. But if I call, I'm horribly -EV. This is an opportunity to win part of a monster pot, and I'm pot committed.

$3,000 Guarantee, Table 2 - 5000/10000 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 3:57:40 ET - 2007

Seat 2: V1(373,274)

Seat 3: Hero (68,764)

Seat 5: V2(115,962)

V1 posts the small blind of 5,000

V2 posts the big blind of 10,000

The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Hero [7c Tc 4c 3d]

Hero raises to 35,000

V1 calls 30,000

V2 calls 25,000

*** FLOP *** [8d 7h Qh]

V1 has 15 seconds left to act

V1 bets 80,962, and is all in

V2 calls 80,962

Hero .....

[davebreal]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an opportunity to win part of a monster pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I fail to see any opportunity here.

[brian64]

I think you have V1 and V2 switched in the seating, otherwise it doesn't make sense.

Call or fold, your best chance is that V1 busts out on the hand, and you have little equity beyond that. If you call and then you and V1 both bust out, you still get 2nd don't you? V1 didn't re-raise pre-flop so he probably doesn't have a monster hand. It might make sense to call just in case V1 is beaten for the high (e.g. V2 has a better flush than V1) and has some sort of low draw.

[zizazziza]

I think I fold here because of the fact that the jump from 3rd to 2nd is high enough that I fold here.

[Truthiness24]

I did fold. I didn't see where I could win any part of the hand, and because it was possible for the big stack to scoop which would have ensured me of 2nd. I think that I made the correct decision.

But instead the shorter stack scooped, and I was left with 3 BBs. And I would have had half.

*** TURN *** [8d 7h Qh] [As]

*** RIVER *** [8d 7h Qh As] [5s]

V1 shows a straight, Eight high, for high and shows 7,6,5,4,A, for low

V2 shows two pair, Aces and Fives, for high

V1 wins the high pot (133,462) with a straight, Eight high

V1 wins the low pot (133,462) with 7,6,5,4,A

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 266,924 | Rake 0

Board: [8d 7h Qh As 5s]

Seat 2: (big blind) showed [Ah Th 9c 5d] and lost with HI: two pair, Aces and Fives

Seat 3: Hero (button) folded on the Flop

Seat 5: (small blind) showed [7s 6c Ac 4h] and won (266,924) with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 7,6,5,4,A


I ran the numbers.


Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 8d Qh 7h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Tc 7c 4c 3d 9 45 594 27 65 301 0 0.099
9c 5d Ah Th 167 432 230 4 61 305 0 0.479
7s Ac 6c 4h 129 162 481 23 350 126 0 0.422

If I shove, I am putting in 33k and am 10% to win 300k. So I guess it's an easy solution -- and a dumb question brought about by hindsight: If I call, I win the low and I'm in pretty good shape.

There is almost zero rationale for calling when you consider the pay ladder, but I couldn't stand the idea of having to continue with 33k.

So: Is it really better to continue with that short stack, or do you push with the opportunity to stack up? My gut reaction is that you fold because there's a chance you'll move up to 2nd right here, but I'd like to hear why I might be wrong.

[prodonkey]

Preflop is kinda meh.. u have kind of a janky hand, but blinds are big and it has some potential. If you do choose to raise it though I'm not sure you can fold any reasonable flop for your hand. Since you are leaving yourself with 3bb with 1 going in the next hand when u are the bb.

[franknagaijr]

T,

I think you already know that I like a fold preflop. It's not strong enough in either direction to get involved when I'm not obliged to put any money in the pot. That's more a difference in philosophy between us than a critique. If it were the same hand double-suited instead of 3 of 1 suit, and I was playing folding machines, I might put it in. I would also be more likely to go to town with 34QJ or 34KT for a little bit of high card strength or 3467 for a nice wheel wrap chance.

That's the fluff. Here's the meat.

Assume payout ratios of 14 to 10 to 7, which is the stars ratio for an 18 player tourney. I assume this was something similar. Here is your net worth preflop according to the ICM.(www.chillin411.com)

V1 = 12.4
Hero = 8.7
V2 9.8

If you folded on the flop and were left with 33K in chips, your equity does not drop dramatically:
V1 = 12.56
Hero = 7.72
V2 = 10.7

If you put it all in the middle and lost, your equity is exactly 7.

If you put it all in the middle and take half the pot, your chip stack is 103K, and the equity is as follows:
v1 = 11.79
hero = 9.16
V2 = 10

You are thinking of putting in 33K, and your chip EV is .99 *206K or 20K. It's a net loss from a chip perspective, but you stand to gain more in tournament equity if you come out alive than you would lose if you died, since your equity could go up 1.44 if you chop, while it only goes down 0.72 if you die.

Does that make sense?

[Truthiness24]

Thanks for the analysis. I need to work with these problems a few times before I try a big money tourney again.

It was actually a mid-size MTT. There were 200 entries, more or less, and the top 3 paid 1250/750/550. These ratios seem to be about the same.

Your data suggests* to me that once I made the (arguably) sketchy PF raise that calling the last of my chips on the flop is justified WRT tournament equity even though it wasn't by calculating chip equity. Am I interpreting this correctly?



* This is assuming that I could figure that my EV=.0909. The number "10%" did go through my mind. I didn't think I was drawing dead, but I thought that it was close. I was also thinking, in plain English, that [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]maybe I'd have a better opportunity to move up the ladder if I threw all my chips in than if I didn't. The overriding factor in the moment wasn't the numbers but rather the possibility that one of my opponents was already AI and that I could move up a spot right there.

[franknagaijr]

I think you need to multiply the 10% times the chip stack and calculate your equity based on that, and it will presumably be less than 7.72. I'm suggesting that if it was anywhere close to a coin flip, you would have been correct to put the last of the chips in. I'll think about this a little more over the next week and confirm.

BTW: If you've got Harrington 3, the ICM basics are walked through in problem 39 on page 257.

Congrats on making it through a large field.

EDIT: The correct way to solve this problem is as follows:

1) Calculate net worth if you win, chop or lose the hand.
2) Calculate percentage chances of winning and chopping and losing the hand.
3) Multiply the percent of winning times value if win, chop if chop, lose if lose and sum the three figures.
4) Compare this figure with your net worth if you fold on the flop.

Since the chance of chop/win is so small, the number will be painfully close to 7 I'm sure. It is a correct fold.

[Buzz]

Hi Truthiness - I was about an hour into writing a reply last night when the power went out and I lost the whole of my effort. Was it windy down in Santa Monica too? I'll try to recapture the gist of what I was thinking:

At any rate, your starting hand is below average. It's below average for a full game, a six max game, a three player game and a heads-up game. It's not trash, but it's definitely below average, and a hand with which you might easily get into trouble.

You're going for a steal, and you can do that with trash (or anything) if you have a strong enough feeling you can pull it off, but I usually like at least a better than average hand, just in case one or both of the blinds plays back (as happened here).

At any rate, when SB goes all-in and is called by BB, you're getting approximately 5.1 to 1 whole pot odds. (172528 to 33764). But you're only getting approximately 2 to 1 half pot odds. (69382 to 33764).

Of course you have to fold, hoping to move into second place.

Buzz