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#71
08-30-2007, 05:08 PM
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Re: First good idea
Have not sold a share. Continue to be very surprised by how badly the stock trades. Talked to a buddy this morning who thinks there is still a seller around because of the way the electronic trading is acting. Wouldn't be surprised if they miss Q3 somewhat and backend it into Q4. Still hopeful on the refi...should get more news on refi by end of September I think (maybe beginning of October). THey have a few tricks they can try...we shall see.
Still my biggest position, but no one should take that as advice. 
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#72
08-30-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] DSUP has an enterprise value at $8.50 of (depending on which seasonal balance sheet you use) around $480m. [/ QUOTE ] What about the remaining future minimum lease payments under non-cancelable operating leases? They are material in this case. $64.3 million as of the June balance sheet. Most credit guys consider non-cancelable operating leases a form of off balance sheet financing and will finesse the $64.3 million figure to create adjustments to debt, EBITDA, interest expense, enterprise value, etc. [/ QUOTE ] this is not that big a deal because if you use operating leases, you then have to use EBITDAR, which is higher. Changes things some, but not a ton.
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#73
08-30-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] CHTR is a very speculative buy [/ QUOTE ] Didn't you say this is your largest position? [/ QUOTE ] it was my largest position when I wrote that...but that did not mean it was not speculative. I also never paid more than $2.75 and during some of my comments the stock was $4+.
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#74
08-30-2007, 05:11 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On DSUP, what you say is closer to the truth. That said, the crappy high yield market, if it stays that way, does take out some of the upside...but for me it was taking $2-3 per share upside out of a $20+ stock price in terms of my original thinking. In terms of "true value" and "outlook" being unchanged...well, that is always the big question. It is always possible that the outlook is deteriorating and I don't have visibility into it. If the credit crunch were to roll over into a serious commercial real estate problem, for example, that would change things. I don't think that will happen because we had a huge downturn already in 2003 and vacancies are dropping right now -- but it is possible. [/ QUOTE ] Just swinging in the dark here, but could on emphasis on infrastructure stemming from the Minneapolis bridge disaster spark any growth for this company in the next year or two? It sounds like their market. Just a thought. eastbay [/ QUOTE ] They think the bridge thing could be material, but sounds like a 2009 event.
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#75
09-18-2007, 05:27 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
The key question on the pulled financing is, "Did they do it from weakness or from strength?" I believe, strongly, that it was from strength. They were offered 9% which is at least as good as the street was expecting. They likely walked for technical reasons around covenants (this is a financial flexibility issue) and secondarily because they think they can do even better on the rate. The lenders played a game of chicken and DSUP said F*** you. You dont do that when you are in trouble...you take the $ and run. This does expose them to some interest rate risk (but that is just risk in the volatility sense...could get better, too). [/ QUOTE ] I'm glad they waited to refinance.
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#78
10-05-2007, 08:35 PM
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Re: First good idea
Here's a discussion on value investors for those following this stock:
http://valueinvestors.com/value2/gue...90&id=2849 The most recent post talks about likely Bankruptcy? Yikes. The OP seems to still like the stock though. Also here is the presentation the CEO and CFO have been showing on their fall tour: http://www.daytonsuperior.com/articl...anc_091907.pdf It points out some positive qualitative factors I didn't know about including legislation passed in 2005 to improve infrastructure. It mentions hospital growth due to aging boomers, and as I believe SM has mentioned, commercial vacancy rates are declining.
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#79
10-06-2007, 07:16 PM
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Re: First good idea
Not going BK. I think we get refi news in the next 30-60 days, but not the total refi had originally expected, more of a bridge to the 09 maturity.
THat said, they still sound mildly light of street estimates and I don't expect Q3 is a positive catalyst. This has turned into a longer haul than I expected.
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#80
10-09-2007, 08:43 PM
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Re: First good idea
Thanks SM. I called Ed today he said he couldn't give me a time frame for the refi. They're waiting for the debt market to improve some more. I think because of their revolver they can take their time. It wouldn't surprise me if this takes longer than two months.
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