How could it go so bad, so quickly????

wazz · #1 10-17-2006, 02:52 PM

You may or not remember me posting about 3 and a half months ago about my plans to drop out of work (having dropped out of uni a few months previously) to pursue poker full-time. Well, it's all gone pear-shaped.

It all started beautifully. In the weekend just before that thread I'd parlayed $200 into $6K in one weekend on PLO on stars. The next weekend I went to the gutshot in London and chopped HU in their weekly £100 freezeout for £2550. For the 2 months after that I didn't have internet so I was playing at my local casino in manchester, GCasino, which is full of the weakest worst players you've ever seen in your life (with a smattering of good regulars). £2/2, I was coming with £200 and splitting it into 2 buyins there, and generally I would lose the first (or get it down to £10 or something) and then proceed to spin up to £600-£800 something like 3 out of every 5 times. I was there pretty much every friday and saturday night for 2 months, and the one weekend I didn't go I was in london for a £300 comp at the gutshot. I bluffed away all my chips in the tourney but in the cash games I flopped quad aces twice and a straight flush and got paid off all-in on each, proceeding to take my stack (£600) to the £5/£5 tables and spin that up to £1600. Ok, all good.

Well since then I've been connected to the internet and have been losing, losing steadily, and losing a lot. I'd say if anything my play has got better, though tilt, having not been heard from since march-time, made an unwelcome reappareance back into the fray. Not in a huge way but enough to account for at least $2K worth of losses. Perhaps important to recognise as well that I perhaps wasn't making the adjustments that are necessary coming from a terrible live game to a half-decent online game - I have stacked off with top pair more than once.

But I've been running so bad for so long that I'm now almost busto online (a kind soul on this forum has staked me) but more importantly am busto in life. My overdraft is now maxed out, some c*nt defrauded my other bank account in germany over the summer to the tune of £280, i'm overdue on my rent, and now to top it all off I have the flu. It's gone so wrong, so quickly, and so painfully, partly because I've run bad, but more that I was so undisciplined and reckless about playing outside of my roll. Of course when I'm running well it makes sense to take shots, as you tend to win a lot more than you lose, but when you're chasing losses you stand to lose a lot more than you win.

I certainly can't blame my bad cards, even though it feels (slightly) therapeutic to do so, simply because I was on a consistent upswing for basically 3 and a half months and was enjoying the frutis of my labour - another reason I am now busto. Anytime I won live, I just put it into my normal bank account and would be happy to spend sh*tloads on lots of other stuff - new suit, digital camera, heavy drinking and drugs, women, yada yada yada - hey, I was a poker pro doing well, why wouldn't I spend my money? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I didn't put anything aside for a rainy day and just considered my bank account my live bankroll.

I find it ironic and cruel that for the first part of my living off my poker winnings (I don't consider myself a poker 'pro') I was on such a good upswing then it's come back to bite me in the ass so easily. I find it more annoying that I've been in this spot a few times before re finances and I've always picked myself up and said 'never again', and I always have no trouble doing it again within a year or so. I've no doubt that I will pick myself up but am very annoyed at myself now that I have the prospect of actually having to go back to full-time work.

oscark · #2 10-17-2006, 03:58 PM

Impressively honest post.

Oscar

pipedreamz · #3 10-17-2006, 04:39 PM

damn,

another bankroll management victim.

hope you make it back bro.

antifish225 · #4 10-17-2006, 07:43 PM

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Impressively honest post.

Oscar

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you recover and get back on your feet!

Leader · #5 10-17-2006, 07:07 PM

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How could it go so bad, so quickly????

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Well honestly:

1. You didn't have near enough money to begin with. Ideally, you should have an excessive roll for at least one limit above which you think you can make a living plus 6 months living expenses.
2. You were not good/lucky enough to overcome this.

wazz · #6 10-17-2006, 07:43 PM

Really? That much? I was thinking that $6K would be enough for earning a living off $1/2 as long as I was happy to drop down if and when I hit a downswing. By your estimation I'd need $22K. I think I'd need one almighty parlay or a large tourney win to get there.

Leader · #7 10-17-2006, 10:37 PM

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Really? That much? I was thinking that $6K would be enough for earning a living off $1/2 as long as I was happy to drop down if and when I hit a downswing.

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I don't know what the bankroll requirements for PLO. I play limit hold'em, I wouldn't go pro without 1000BB for 10/20 or 20K because I think you can make a living off 5/10 barely. In NL hold'em, you should probably have 40-50 buy-ins at a mid limit like 600NL. I don't know how much you make off a PLO game, but it seems unrealistic that you can make a living playing 1/2 anything. If you are going to make a living doing that it's probably going to be pretty thin. So I can't really so you dropping down and still being able to make a living. The point of playing one limit above where you think you can make a living is that you should never go broke if your a winning player and you move down when your BR gets halved at the higher limit.

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By your estimation I'd need $22K. I think I'd need one almighty parlay or a large tourney win to get there.

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Well right now you would. But the idea is to build that up before you go pro. In the process of building that kind of money up you develop the bankroll management, budgeting, and playing skills to be a successful pro.

Shandrax · #8 10-18-2006, 02:48 AM

People constantly underestimate the variance in poker. Winning a few months in a row they all think they are invicible...

Poker is all about a 5-10% advantage in skill overshadowed by a 90-95% luck factor.

With a 5% rake and the competition booked up with all sorts of educational material and tracking software, the realistic chances for most people to win in online poker are worse than Roulette and we can all count the number of professional Roulette players worldwide...

pipedreamz · #9 10-18-2006, 02:52 AM

shandrax, are you a disgruntled losing player?

CaseS87 · #10 10-18-2006, 03:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
People constantly underestimate the variance in poker. Winning a few months in a row they all think they are invicible...

Poker is all about a 5-10% advantage in skill overshadowed by a 90-95% luck factor.

With a 5% rake and the competition booked up with all sorts of educational material and tracking software, the realistic chances for most people to win in online poker are worse than Roulette and we can all count the number of professional Roulette players worldwide...

[/ QUOTE ]

this post is not accurate and clearly just the ramblings of a long term loser.