KK vs cold-calling TAG

[Hail Eris]

Anyway, there's no reason to think AA is still in his range here 240BB deep and not closing the action. The circumstances of the previous hand were probably different.

[Ranma4703]

Clear fold. That turn and river bet are begging for value. I don't think he's triple barrel bluffing here, and I don't think he is value betting a worse hand when he can close the action in a massive pot. What would he do if you pushed? Obviously call, so he is willing to risk the rest of his stack to win a 99$ bet when he could just check behind, without a read that he is a complete moron this is an easy fold.

[kaby]

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What would he do if you pushed? Obviously call, so he is willing to risk the rest of his stack to win a 99$ bet when he could just check behind, without a read that he is a complete moron this is an easy fold.

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i can't think of a single hand that would check/shove this river instead of just valuebetting it as played, exactly because like everyone said villain should check behind AQ here

so no i don't think villain is scared of a c/r, and i think this is a fairly easy call

also, coldcalling AA in the blinds (maybe in the SB with a very nitty or very fishy BB behind, maybe in the BB closing the action) is different from coldcalling it OTB ... we should at least discount the amount of combos of AA he can show up with imho, same goes for QQ

and we need like what? 40% equity? you need to be able to discount AQ A LOT to fold here and i don't think you can do that (especially given that we also have to discount sets somewhat because they want to get it AI by the river => they bet turn bigger)

[Dialect]

Isn't bet-folding this turn the equivalent of betting for info?

[kaby]

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Isn't bet-folding this turn the equivalent of betting for info?

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somewhat yeah

i think flop&turn are played perfectly, i'm still in doubt between valuebet/fold river (Qx might call, but might fold, he might shove as a bluff but that's very unlikely given that call flop c/c turn bet river is a strong line imho) or c/c it (some hands we beat check behind, we might get valuebet to death, we see a showdown)

[Melchiades]

Say hello to valuetown. Can't see this being 76 or AQ enough to call river.

Just because the only hand that beats us is 55/88, does not make this a call for me. Since it is the line he takes with 55 and 88 always, and probably only rarely with 76 or AQ.

[kaby]

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Just because the only hand that beats us is 55/88, does not make this a call for me. Since it is the line he takes with 55 and 88 always, and probably only rarely with 76 or AQ.

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this is exactly why the 8 is a good card

55 and 88 are 4 combos
you need 40% equity (wild guess [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) to call

so there need to be 3 (out of 15) combos of AQ/76s in his range ... if he plays AQ/76s like this 20% of the time it's a call, even when he always plays sets like this (i still think sets too should be discounted somewhat because sets often bet the turn a bit bigger so they can shove river for slightly below pot)

if he rly can show up here with AA QQ it's closer but they has to be discounted a lot imho, even with out read